DEFENSE / U.S. think tank calls for 'hellscape' drone strategy for Taiwan

Washington, Feb. 26 (CNA) A U.S. think tank has urged Taiwan to adopt a "hellscape" strategy that would flood the Taiwan Strait with drones and other uncrewed systems to deter a potential invasion by China.

In its new report "Hellscape for Taiwan" published on Thursday, the Center for a New American Security argued that Taipei's current asymmetric defense approach -- often described as a "porcupine strategy" -- needs to evolve to keep pace with the growing capabilities of the People's Liberation Army.

The concept of a "hellscape," a term used by U.S. military leaders in recent years, envisions saturating the air and waters around Taiwan with thousands of drones and other uncrewed platforms capable of striking invading forces from multiple domains at once.

Under the approach outlined in the study, long-range aerial, surface and undersea drones would target Chinese ships and aircraft well before they reach Taiwan's shores.

As invading forces move closer, additional layers of mines, loitering munitions and short-range systems would further disrupt and weaken by attrition troops attempting amphibious landings.

The goal, according to the report, is to deny China air and sea superiority and to impose such heavy losses that an invasion would become prohibitively costly.

The report argued that Taiwan must be prepared to defend itself even in the early stages of a cross-Taiwan Strait conflict, when outside assistance could be delayed or contested.

Rather than relying primarily on high-end, limited-number platforms such as advanced fighter jets or large surface ships, the hellscape concept emphasizes quantity, dispersion and resilience.

The study called for mass production of affordable drones -- including "long-range strike systems" and "first-person-view attack drones" -- that can operate in contested communications environments.

It also recommended building domestic manufacturing capacity and integrating uncrewed systems into a coherent doctrine that links sensors, shooters and command networks.

The study argued that while China has rapidly modernized its navy, air force and missile forces over the past two decades, significant uncertainties remain about its ability to execute and sustain such a large-scale operation, especially in the face of Taiwanese counterattacks and possible U.S. intervention.

Taiwan's government has devised plans consistent with the report's recommendations for the use of drones in deterring or repelling a Chinese invasion.

Most recently, as part of a proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.99 billion) special defense budget for 2026-2033, Taiwan wants to purchase more than 200,000 unmanned aerial vehicles and 1,000-plus unmanned surface vehicles, with many of them produced domestically.

Chinese attack options

Rather than launching an immediate, all-out invasion, the report outlined several scenarios China could consider.

One option was a quarantine or blockade designed to choke off Taiwan's trade and energy supplies, pressuring its government into political concessions without a risky amphibious assault.

Another possibility was a limited seizure of offshore islands controlled by Taipei, testing international resolve while avoiding the enormous costs of invading the main island.

A full invasion would likely come only if Chinese leaders assessed that peaceful unification was no longer plausible and that military conditions -- including readiness, logistics and deterrence of outside powers -- were favorable, the report said.