DEFENSE/New U.S. arms sales strategy favors Taiwan, but ambiguity remains: Experts

Washington, Feb. 11 (CNA) The United States' new "America First Arms Transfer Strategy" could benefit Taiwan, though much will depend on how it is implemented and whether Taipei approves sufficient funding, U.S. defense experts said Wednesday.

Mark Montgomery, a retired rear admiral in the U.S. Navy and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNA that the new foreign military sales (FMS) guidance could be helpful for Taiwan "if done properly."

Montgomery was referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent signing of an executive order titled "Establishing an America First Arms Transfer Strategy."

The order, signed last week, marked a policy shift toward prioritizing U.S. arms sales and transfers to partners with higher defense spending and greater strategic importance, replacing the long-standing first come, first served delivery approach.

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The order, however, "is only a small fraction of the reform that is needed within the FMS process to reduce the backlogs of deliveries many countries, like Taiwan, are experiencing," Montgomery said in an emailed comment to CNA.

John Dotson, director of the Global Taiwan Institute, a Washington-based think tank, said the order's "vague" wording made it hard to assess how the new policy would affect Taiwan.

He cited two key sections of the order, one of which states that foreign arms sales will be used to "support domestic re-industrialization, expand production capacity, and improve the resilience of the United States defense industrial base."

The language in that section could be interpreted to mean that arms sales will prioritize larger-ticket items, such as aircraft, missiles, or heavy artillery like HIMARS, Dotson told CNA.

The wording could also be interpreted as support for possible collaborative programs between the U.S. and Taiwan, such as the development of unmanned aerial vehicles, he said.

"My educated guess is that supporting 'domestic reindustrialization' probably leans more" toward the former interpretation, Dotson said, adding that such a focus on "big-ticket" items could prioritize some Middle Eastern customers.

According to Dotson, the second key part of the order states that the U.S. will prioritize arms sales and transfers to partners "that have invested in their own self-defense and capabilities, have a critical role or geography in United States plans and operations, or contribute to our economic security."

The language referring to "critical geography" and the connection to U.S. economic interests "could be taken as a veiled invocation of support for Taiwan," he said.

However, the reference to "partners that have invested in their own defense" will add pressure on Taiwan's opposition parties to approve the proposed special defense budget and other defense improvement programs, Dotson said.

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He was referring to an NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.86 billion) special defense budget for 2026-2033 that was proposed by Taiwan's government late last year, but remains stalled in the opposition-controlled Legislature.

The Legislature has also yet to approve the government's 2026 general budget proposal, which would boost defense funding -- including veterans' and Coast Guard expenses -- by NT$93.8 billion, or 20.1 percent, to NT$949.5 billion.

That figure is equivalent to 3.32 percent of Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP), according to government data, and would bring Taiwan closer to its goal of raising its defense spending to 5 percent of its GDP by 2030.