ANALYSIS / Chinese warplane lull around Taiwan tied to politics, fuel: Scholars

Taipei, March 12 (CNA) Taiwanese scholars said Thursday that a recent drop in Chinese warplane activity around Taiwan was temporary, likely driven by Beijing's desire for "political security" during the annual "Two Sessions" and higher fuel costs caused by tension in the Middle East.

"I think the recent drop in People's Liberation Army (PLA) warplane activity around Taiwan is short-term rather than a long-term trend," Christina Chen (方琮嬿), an assistant research fellow at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said at a seminar in Taipei.

Chen said one of the key reasons was likely the need to maintain "political security" during the "Two Sessions" -- China's annual meetings of its top legislature and political advisory body, which began in Beijing on March 4 and were set to conclude on Thursday.

Before and during the "Two Sessions," PLA warplane activity around Taiwan fell sharply from its usual near-daily level, with only two sorties by PLA support aircraft detected in the southwestern part of Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between March 1 and 10, according to Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND).

But on Wednesday, as the "Two Sessions" approached their conclusion, a total of five sorties by PLA fighter jets or unmanned aerial vehicles were detected in Taiwan's ADIZ, MND data showed.

'Political security'

Chen told CNA that the "Two Sessions" were a "sensitive" period because China's top leaders, including Xi Jinping (習近平), were all gathered in one place, which could have heightened concerns about internal security risks.

"Could these military drills or flights around Taiwan backfire?" she asked, suggesting that Beijing may have been concerned about the possibility of a military mutiny that could lead to an attempt on Xi's life or cripple the top Chinese leadership.

Chen said such concerns were rooted in Xi's recent purge of senior PLA figures -- including investigations into top generals such as Zhang Youxia (張又俠) -- which may have affected the military's "overall command and control."

She said Beijing's concerns may have also intensified after Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28, when he was reportedly meeting with close aides.

She said the incident underscored the risks of having senior figures concentrated in one place and that such a possibility "could not be ruled out" in Beijing's decision to scale back recent warplane activity around Taiwan.

Saving fuel

Another possible reason, Chen said, was fuel conservation, as disruptions linked to the U.S.-Iran military conflict have pushed up energy prices and heightened supply concerns, while China is a major buyer of oil from Iran and Venezuela.

She said flights around Taiwan are inherently "costly," as each sortie requires significant fuel, manpower and other resources, and the cost adds up when such operations are carried out on a near-daily basis.

In the same vein, Wang Guo-chen (王國臣), an associate research fellow at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, said that before the start of this year, when crude oil was about US$60 a barrel, China could obtain oil from Iran and Venezuela at discounts of roughly US$15 to US$20 per barrel.

With crude oil now hovering around US$100 a barrel, the PLA may have to spend up to five times more on fuel to keep its warplanes flying, Wang said.

Asked whether China would care about rising fuel costs despite its large military budget, Wang said a fivefold jump in oil prices could see domestic prices broadly increase and raise questions about whether military fuel should be redirected to stabilize supply and curb inflation.

Chinese authorities "will certainly move to tighten control over oil stockpiles," Wang said, adding that public sentiment also creates pressure, as soaring fuel prices could spark public discontent.