China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027: U.S. intelligence report

Taipei, March 19 (CNA) China currently does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, but it continues to develop military capabilities and contingency plans to use force if necessary, according to an annual report released Wednesday by the United States Intelligence Community.

China is maintaining the option to use force to achieve unification with Taiwan and counter what it views as the U.S.' efforts to use Taiwan to contain Beijing's rise, but it would prefer not to take that option, if possible, according to the report, titled "Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community."

Currently, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is steadily building capabilities for a potential Taiwan operation and to deter U.S. intervention, sometimes ramping up the scale and pace of activities around the island, said the report, which was issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

It said that in 2026, China will probably continue its efforts to create the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan, short of conflict.

"The IC [intelligence community] assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," the report said.

"However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of "national rejuvenation" by 2049 -- the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC)," the report said.

Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, the report said, listing factors such as "PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan's behalf," the report explained.

Chinese officials acknowledge that a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and risky, particularly if the U.S. intervenes, according to the report.

A conflict over Taiwan could disrupt U.S. access to trade and critical semiconductors, unsettle global supply chains, and spark market turmoil, the report said.

"Even without Washington's involvement, U.S. and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets," it said.

In addition, a protracted war with the U.S. risks unprecedented economic costs to the U.S., Chinese, and global economies, it added.

The 33-page report also addressed other issues, including homeland defense and artificial intelligence, as well as rising tensions between China and Japan after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi late last year called a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan a "survival threatening situation" for Japan.