Calls for Six Assurances law after Trump Taiwan arms comments

Washington, Feb. 17 (CNA) U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that he is negotiating Taiwan arms sales with Beijing has raised concerns and prompted calls for Congress to codify the 1982 security pledges, known as the "Six Assurances," into law.

U.S. lawmakers and Taiwan experts voiced unease after Trump said aboard Air Force One on Monday that he was discussing future arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in response to a question about Xi's warning on the issue.

Lawmakers alarmed

"I'm talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we'll make a determination pretty soon," Trump said, adding that he has a "good relationship" with Xi.

In a press release Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) described the comments on future arms sales to Taiwan as "alarming" and a "blatant violation of U.S. policy and the Six Assurances."

The second of the "Six Assurances" states that the U.S. has not agreed to consult with China on arms sales to Taiwan, said Khanna, a ranking member of the House Select Committee on U.S.-China Strategic Competition.

He urged Trump to reaffirm the U.S.'s commitment to the "Six Assurances" and clarify its policy on Taiwan has not changed. "Taiwan must be off the table."

"This isn't just an admission, it's a disturbing abandonment of our Taiwan policy, which has been key to stability for decades," U.S. Senator Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said in a post on X, responding to Trump's comments.

Kim warned that the U.S. once non-negotiable commitments to Taiwan are now "in doubt," with potentially serious consequences. "Even if he decides to move forward with these sales, we're in dangerous territory now."

Policy risk

Kim's warnings reflect broader concerns about the impact on U.S.-Taiwan policy.

Ryan Hass, a former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) official, said Beijing has long sought to require Washington to consult on Taiwan arms sales, a demand consistently rejected by previous administrations in line with the Six Assurances.

"Regardless of what Trump decides, Trump has gifted Xi a win by setting new precedent," said Hass, director of the Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in Taiwan Studies, in a post on X.

Trump's comments followed a Financial Times report that the U.S. plans up to US$20 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, after a US$11.1 billion package in December, with Beijing warning the moves could threaten Trump's China visit in April.

An official Chinese readout following the last publicly known Trump-Xi talk on Feb. 4 quoted Xi as saying, "The U.S. must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence," while Trump made no mention of what was discussed regarding Taiwan.

Assurances wording

The Six Assurances were issued to Taiwan by the Reagan administration following the United States-China Joint Communiqué on United States Arms Sales to Taiwan in 1982.

The "assurances" were that Washington would not set a timetable for ending arms sales, consult Beijing on weapons transfers, play a mediation role, revise the Taiwan Relations Act, alter its position on sovereignty over Taiwan, or pressure Taipei into negotiations, according to declassified U.S. documents.

Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, noted that while the U.S. has consistently avoided consulting China on arms sales, there remains "some ambiguity" over the second of the six assurances.

Bush, currently a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the 1982 formulation technically leaves open the possibility of future consultation.

In contrast, former NSC official Rush Doshi argued that a literal reading of the "has not" language is too narrow, asserting that 40 years of bipartisan consensus and congressional actions have effectively solidified the assurance as a firm "will not" mandate.

The Six Assurances has effectively meant -- and been explained by Congress to the American people and by the Executive to Beijing - - that the U.S will not negotiate arms sales with Beijing, Doshi said in a post on X.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, noted it is a "widely held view" that Reagan's true intention was to proscribe any U.S. negotiations with Beijing over arms sales to Taiwan, despite all three versions in official records using the past-tense "has not" rather than "would not."

Possible motive

Taiwan observers are also weighing the reasoning behind Trump's remarks.

Glaser said she believed Trump's comment suggests he might delay announcing future arms sales until after his planned summit with Xi.

Alexander Gray, former deputy assistant and NSC chief of staff during Trump's first presidency, told CNA that Trump is "skillfully" balancing longstanding support for Taiwan with his desire to achieve an equilibrium in U.S-China trade.

Gray said that the U.S.-Taiwan partnership has made significant economic, defense and diplomatic progress under Trump's two terms, and he expects the positive relationship to continue as the president navigates challenges in U.S.-China relations.

Legislation push

Gray's assessment contrasts sharply with critics like Khanna, who see Trump's approach as treating Taiwan as a "bargaining chip" in trade negotiations with China.

"It shows he is more eager to make bad deals with America's strategic competitors than strengthen ties with long-standing friends like Taiwan," he said.

Khanna said Congress is currently advancing legislation to codify the six "stabilizing principles" through the Six Assurances to Taiwan Act.

"Time to pass the Six Assurances to Taiwan Act," Glaser also said on X.