Xi may press Trump for public concessions on Taiwan: Ex-AIT chair

Washington, March 4 (CNA) Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) could ask Donald Trump to publicly commit to limiting arms sales to Taiwan or opposing Taiwan independence during the U.S. president's visit to Beijing later this month, according to a former head of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).

Richard C. Bush, who served as AIT chairman from 1997-2002, made the comments during an interview last month with Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

A transcript of the conversation was published on Wednesday.

Asked what Beijing may want Trump to say differently about Taiwan, Bush said Xi might ask Trump to say that as a matter of U.S. policy, Taiwan is a part of China, thus setting aside "decades of policy that was devised for good reasons."

Xi may also ask him to publicly state that the U.S. "opposes Taiwan independence," Bush said, marking a subtle but important shift from the U.S.' current policy that it "does not support" Taiwan independence.

Alternately, Xi could ask Trump to publicly promise to show restraint on arms sales to Taiwan, or to express support for unification, Bush said.

Impact of possible U.S. concessions

According to Bush, any of these statement by Trump would "tip the scale in Beijing's direction," while some of them could have substantive consequences.

For example, he said, saying that Taiwan is a part of China would concede that the issue is an "internal affair."

"[This] has implications, at least as far as our lawyers are concerned, about arms sales policy and intervention policy," Bush said.

Likewise, he argued, the U.S. should not promise restraint on arms sales while Beijing continues its military buildup, since that would exacerbate the asymmetry between the two sides.

Other statements could shift the balance of power within Taiwan politics in favor of China.

Stating that the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence "would be understood as opposition" to any Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, Bush said, since Beijing believes that independence "is the goal of the DPP now and forever."

Meanwhile, publicly supporting unification would also be seen by people in Taiwan as limiting their ability to have a say in their own future, Bush said.

Any of these statements "would be read in Taiwan as a degree of abandonment by the United States."

What Trump should do

Asked what advice he would give Trump going into the March 31-April 2 trip to China, Bush said the president should not make any changes to declaratory policy, or even discuss the issue of arms sales to Taiwan.

Trump could also tell Xi that Beijing's current suite of actions toward Taiwan, which can be characterized as "coercion without violence," will not help win the trust of the Taiwanese people, Bush said.

The president could also advise Xi that the "one country, two systems" model Beijing prefers for Taiwan is strongly opposed by the Taiwanese public.

Additionally, Trump could encourage Xi to talk with whichever party Taiwanese voters put in power, recognizing that Taiwan's main parties have all "conformed to the status quo preferences of the population," he said.