Incoming Lai gov't urged to prepare for possible Trump return

Taipei, March 6 (CNA) A group of Taiwanese political science and foreign affairs scholars on Wednesday called on the incoming Lai Ching-te (賴清德) government to be prepared for any "uncertainties" in the Taipei-Washington relationship that could arise if Donald Trump were to be re-elected as U.S. president in November 2024.

They also urged the new Lai administration, which will take office on May 20, to make use of existing channels as well as unconventional methods, including taking advantage of personal connections, to manage Trump's possible return and safeguard Taiwan's interests.

Speaking at a Taipei seminar on "Super Tuesday," Stanley Kao (高碩泰), a former top Taiwan envoy to Washington, said it was almost certain that there will be a rematch in November between Trump and current U.S. President Joe Biden.

"Super Tuesday," held on March 5 in the United States, is the day when the most states hold their primaries for various offices, giving a good indication of who is most likely to be each party's presidential nominee in November's general election.

Kao, who served as Taiwan's representative to the U.S. from May 2016 to July 2020 and facilitated the historic telephone call between then-President-elect Trump and President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in December 2016, said that Taiwan's government was able to maintain cordial ties with the U.S. during the Trump presidency despite uncertainties arising.

"Overall, we were able to maintain surprise-free, mutually trustworthy, and beneficial bilateral relations," Kao said.

Kao said that Lai has to do more to prepare for a possible Trump presidency because Biden is a more predictable and traditional American leader.

He added that Trump is known to be a "transactional leader" who likes to bargain and make deals, and that the Lai administration would need to prove Taiwan's worth to ensure stable bilateral relations.

Kao retired in July 2020 and now serves as the senior advisor of a local think-tank, according to the Institute of National Policy Research, which organized the Wednesday's seminar.

The Tsai-Trump call took place on Dec. 2, 2016, and marked the first time that a U.S. president or president-elect had directly spoken with a Taiwanese president since Taipei and Washingtong severed official diplomatic relations in 1979.

Also at the seminar, Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said Trump being re-elected would send political shockwaves across the world, not only to U.S. adversaries like China, but also to traditional allies such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.

"The only thing we can be certain of right now is that Trump's return to the White House would bring significant unpredictability and uncertainty to all," Shen said.

Taiwan's government therefore needs to consider adopting unconventional approaches, including making the most of personal ties or using unofficial channels to build relations with the Trump administration, the scholar said.

President-elect Lai also needs to be careful when selecting his new national security and foreign affairs teams to facilitate building those connections, he added.

Sharing broadly similar views to Kao and Shen, Fu Tse-min (傅澤民), an assistant research fellow with the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, said Trump exhibits the traits of a transactional leader.

His mindset of making deals and prioritizing his "America First" strategy could mean he will pressure Washington's allies into again proving their worth to the U.S., he said.

Therefore, Taiwan is expected to have to do the same should Trump win the presidency, or the usually cordial bilateral cooperation in key technologies could be jeopardized, Fu said.

Meanwhile, Tan Yao-nan (譚耀南), head of another think tank Cross-Strait Policy Association, said that a clearer picture of Trump's future foreign affairs and diplomacy policy platform could become apparent in the summer when he is likely to announce who his key team members would be.

Tan also agreed that Taiwan may need to present and prove its worth and value to the Trump government to maintain existing friendly bilateral relations.