CDC lowers flu peak forecast, warns of post-school return epidemic

Taipei, Jan. 27 (CNA) Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Tuesday said it has revised down its estimate for medical visits at this season's influenza epidemic peak from 130,000 to 120,000, as the increase in domestic cases has been slower than expected.

The agency will continue to closely monitor whether influenza B could trigger another wave after schools reopen, noting that based on past experience the strain is often more prevalent in spring, CDC Director-General Lo Yi-chun (羅一鈞) said.

A total of 110,501 people sought medical attention for influenza-like illnesses from Jan. 18-24, a 3.9 percent increase from the previous week, CDC Epidemic Intelligence Center Director Kuo Hung-wei (郭宏偉) said at a routine press briefing.

From Jan. 20-26, 14 new cases of severe influenza complications and five related deaths were reported, bringing the total for the current flu season, which began in October 2025, to 472 severe cases and 93 deaths, Kuo said.

The CDC had originally expected Taiwan to enter the epidemic phase this week, and for the peak to coincide with the Lunar New Year holiday.

However, Lo said the number of people seeking medical care has not yet reached the threshold for the epidemic phase, although it is approaching that level. Whether Taiwan will officially enter the epidemic phase this week, next week, or around the Lunar New Year remains to be seen, he said.

Lo noted that the past week recorded the lowest number of flu-related medical visits for the same period in four years and marked the latest entry into the epidemic phase over the same timeframe. He attributed the trend to the protective effect of flu vaccination and residual immunity among people infected from September to November.

With many people expected to travel abroad during the holiday period, Lo cautioned that while flu cases in Japan and South Korea peaked in December 2025 and are currently decreasing, norovirus infections have surged in South Korea. He advised travelers to ensure that spring water, groundwater, shellfish and seafood are thoroughly heated before consumption.

Regarding publicly funded vaccination programs, CDC Deputy Director-General Lin Ming-cheng (林明誠) said that 6.694 million flu vaccine doses have been administered, with about 133,000 doses remaining. Meanwhile, 1.637 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been given.