China to push 'why die for Taiwan' story in Japan during crisis: Expert

Washington, Jan. 13 (CNA) In the event of a cross-Taiwan Strait crisis, China would likely wage an information operation in Japan to make people question why they should "risk their lives for Taiwan," according to a Japanese international relations scholar.

Satoru Mori, deputy director of the Keio Center for Strategy at Keio University, made the comments during a forum on the U.S.-Japan Alliance hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Monday.

"It's going to be a pretty potent strategic communication tactic that the Chinese would likely use," and since Japan has a parliamentary democracy, any loss of public opinion could lead to a change of government, Mori said.

Mori said any such reversal would be a "nightmare scenario" for the Japan-U.S. alliance since the U.S. would no longer be able to wage effective military operations to defend Taiwan.

Seeing Japan opt out of such an effort could also cause Taiwan to "lose faith" and undermine its will to fight, Mori said, warning that China would thus be able to "kill three birds with one stone" by going after Japanese public opinion.

To avoid such a situation, efforts should be taken during peacetime to convince the Japanese public that Taiwan matters very much for Japan's security, thereby building public resolve to withstand such information operations in the event of a crisis, Mori said.

Motohiro Tsuchiya, a professor at Keio University's Graduate School of Media and Governance, said it is instructive to look at Taiwan's elections -- including the upcoming local elections in November -- to understand how such information operations are waged.

"From my experiences in Taiwan, there are a lot of interference interventions," though it is not always clear if they are coming from China, from actors within Taiwan, or from other countries, Tsuchiya said.

In some cases, these messages can be easily identified, such as those using simplified Chinese characters, but they can still sway people's mindset due to the huge volume of them, Tsuchiya said.

Tsuchiya noted that to date, Japan has not faced extensive interference in its elections, though he warned that that could change if Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi -- who has taken a strong stance in support of Taiwan -- decides to call elections next month.

According to Reuters, Japanese media has reported that Takaichi is considering calling a snap lower house election on Feb. 8 after dissolving the house next week, in an effort to capitalize on her currently high approval ratings and stabilize her coalition.