U.S. strike in Venezuela unlikely to alter China's Taiwan strategy: Scholars

Washington/Taipei, Jan. 4 (CNA) The United States' latest military action in Venezuela is unlikely to alter China's long-term strategy toward Taiwan, despite concerns that President Donald Trump's decision could set a precedent Beijing might cite in the future, U.S. scholars told CNA on Saturday.

Earlier that day, the U.S. launched a series of airstrikes in Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro, who was later flown to New York along with his wife. The pair face federal charges related to drug trafficking and alleged cooperation with gangs designated as terrorist organizations. Maduro has denied the allegations.

The operation's legality has been questioned, with critics arguing it violated the United Nations Charter and Venezuela's sovereignty.

Republican Congressman Don Bacon, while praising Trump's decision as "great for the future of Venezuelans and the region," warned it could have broader implications.

"My main concern is now Russia will use this to justify their illegal and barbaric military actions against Ukraine, or China to justify an invasion of Taiwan," Bacon wrote in a post on X.

Different circumstances between Venezuela and Taiwan

Asked whether the U.S. operation could encourage Beijing to take similar action against Taipei, Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), said the circumstances were fundamentally different.

Bush said Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has incentives to pursue a long-term approach, noting that Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party's control of the presidency after 2028 "is not guaranteed."

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the U.S.-based German Marshall Fund, said China was unlikely to change its Taiwan policy in response to events in Venezuela.

"The Chinese are playing the long game, and they continue to believe that international trends favor China's goals of national reunification and national rejuvenation," she said.

"While it's possible that Xi could change course in the future, he is unlikely to do so in response to U.S. actions in Venezuela," Glaser added.

Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington, also cautioned against drawing parallels between the two situations.

"I don't expect today's events in Venezuela will dramatically alter Beijing's calculus on Taiwan," he said in a post on X.

"Xi's comments in the New Year's address suggest broad continuity in the Chinese approach to Taiwan. If Beijing shifts its approach, it will not be because of U.S. actions in Venezuela," Hass said.

He added that Beijing would likely focus on protecting its interests, condemning U.S. actions and sharpening contrasts with Washington in the international system, rather than drawing inspiration from events in Venezuela to alter its Taiwan policy.

Taiwan's comments

In Taipei, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said Sunday that it was closely monitoring developments in Venezuela, including the country's role in international drug trafficking and the humanitarian crisis under its authoritarian government.

The ministry said Venezuela's situation has long affected regional stability and that Taiwan will continue monitoring developments to safeguard Taiwanese citizens there.

MOFA also expressed hope that Venezuela could "smoothly and peacefully transition to democracy," adding that Taiwan would continue working with the United States and other democratic partners to promote regional and global security and stability.