Scholars see short-term dip in China war risk after Xi purges top general

Taipei, Jan. 30 (CNA) Taiwanese scholars said Friday that Chinese leader Xi Jinping's (習近平) recent purge of top general Zhang Youxia (張又俠) could make China less likely to launch a major war in the short term, including a military invasion of Taiwan.

China's Ministry of National Defense announced last Saturday that Zhang, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli (劉振立), chief of staff of the CMC's Joint Staff Department, are under investigation for "suspected serious discipline and law violations."

The investigations are the latest in a series of senior-level purges that have significantly reduced the CMC's senior leadership roster -- leaving only Xi and CMC vice chairman Zhang Shengmin (張升民) -- and underscored ongoing turbulence in the PLA's top command.

Temporary easing of war risks

"The major shake-up and purge of senior PLA generals over the past two to three years could temporarily reduce the likelihood that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will launch a major war," said Kou Chien-wen (寇健文), a political science professor at National Chengchi University (NCCU).

"The main reason is that, aside from the CMC still not being fully staffed, positions also need to be filled at the CMC's Joint Operations Command Center," Kou said at a seminar held by NCCU's Institute of International Relations in Taipei.

He noted that the CMC Joint Staff Department deputy chief of staff Zhu Chuansheng (祝傳生) and CMC Joint Operations Command Center deputy director Zheng Shoudong (鄭守東) -- both Army lieutenant generals -- were absent from a Jan. 20 training seminar for senior CCP officials.

Kou said the absence of Zhu and Zheng at an event opened by Xi suggests the two may also have been caught up in the shake-up.

Appointing personnel to fill vacancies at the CMC and its subordinate departments so the PLA can be ready for a major war "will take some time," he said.

However, Kou did not estimate how long the temporary easing of major-war risks might last or how long it would take to fill the vacancies.

2027 invasion unlikely

In the same vein, Chieh Chung (揭仲), an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the likelihood of a PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2027 "would not increase significantly" because of Zhang's purge.

The 2027 window refers to claims by some U.S. military and intelligence officials that Xi has directed the PLA to be combat ready to seize Taiwan by 2027.

"China treats 'peaceful unification' as its preferred option, and there is still no timetable for using force," Chieh said, stressing that whether Beijing pursues its goals through peaceful or forceful means "has little to do with Zhang."

Such decisions, he continued, are made by the CCP's Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, headed by Xi, with Wang Huning (王滬寧), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, as deputy head and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) as secretary-general.

According to Chieh, Zhang does not play a central role in the group and is "merely one of its members."

While Taiwan does not need to worry too much about a PLA invasion "in the next few years," it should "remain on high alert" if cross-strait tensions escalate into a crisis, Chieh said.

The PLA's leadership might be reluctant to speak candidly in the event of a crisis after seeing the purges in recent years, which could lead Xi to misjudge the situation and make crisis management "far more difficult," he added.

Period of 'uncertainty'

Ma Chen-kun (馬振坤), a professor at National Defense University's Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies, said Zhang was not opposed to using force against Taiwan and believed the "Taiwan issue" would ultimately have to be resolved by military means.

"However, Zhang opposed rashly launching a full-scale armed operation against Taiwan at this stage, when the PLA is still not capable of comprehensively countering potential U.S. intervention and Taiwan's defenses," he said.

Ma said Zhang is "cautious" about war and believes Beijing should buy more time to continue building up the PLA.

After Zhang's purge, Ma said it remains unclear which generals Xi will come to trust as military advisers.

"Because Xi is not a military professional, he still needs trusted generals to advise him," he said.

As potential successors remain uncertain, Ma said China's military approach toward Taiwan has now entered a period of "uncertainty."