ANALYSIS / Xi's military purge raises Taiwan miscalculation risk: Experts

Taipei, Jan. 27 (CNA) Chinese President Xi Jinping's (習近平) ongoing purge of senior military leaders, most recently targeting top general Zhang Youxia (張又俠), could help him consolidate power and potentially increase the risk of strategic miscalculation over Taiwan, according to experts.

Chinese authorities on Saturday announced investigations into Zhang, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli (劉振立), head of the CMC Joint Staff Department, for "serious violations of discipline and law," a phrase commonly used to denote corruption or political disloyalty.

The investigations are the latest in a series of senior-level purges that have significantly reduced the CMC's leadership roster -- leaving only Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin (張升民), who oversees the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Rocket Force, in their posts -- and underscored ongoing turbulence within the PLA top command.

Loyalty over expertise

The ousting of Zhang Youxia, a princeling like Xi, suggests that Xi places little value on personal connections, even among elite networks -- a pattern seen in his previous removals of CMC generals, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

Lin likened Xi's approach to Joseph Stalin's rule by fear in the Soviet Union, saying that placing a premium on generals' loyalty could encourage a "political loyalty first, expertise second" mindset among PLA officials.

The purges have left the CMC with a small leadership core and no members possessing direct operational experience, as Zhang Shengmin comes from the PLA's political and disciplinary system rather than having commanded field units, Lin added.

PLA operational gap

Sharing a similar view, Chieh Chung (揭仲), an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said PLA purges over the years have placed many key positions in major institutions in the hands of junior lieutenant generals.

Many of them were rapidly elevated from major general to lieutenant general and thus lack the seasoned experience required to manage major sudden crises, Chieh said.

This creates a leadership gap within the military that -- combined with an intensifying culture of fear where officers "dare not tell uncomfortable truths" for fear of being labeled "disloyal" to Xi -- significantly heightens the risk of strategic miscalculations should an incident occur in the Taiwan Strait, he noted.

The degradation of PLA's leadership may also cast a shadow over the armed force's combat effectiveness, according to experts.

Chieh said the purges could create a "bottleneck" in PLA combat development over the next few years, adding that if the crackdown spreads to operational units, it could severely damage the armed force's overall combat effectiveness.

Stability first

Tsai Wen-hsuan (蔡文軒), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Political Science, said that the military purge provides a "short-term benefit" to Taiwan, because it inevitably degrades the PLA's immediate combat effectiveness.

Xi appears to prioritize neutralizing immediate internal threats over the PLA's operational capabilities at this stage, seeking stability as he moves toward securing a historic fourth term at the 21st Party Congress in 2027, Tsai noted.

Tsai argued that Xi's acceptance of a PLA leadership gap suggests Taiwan is not an immediate priority, provided it avoids de jure independence, though he expects Xi to pursue more decisive action toward Taiwan after the 21st Party Congress.

Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源), chairman of the Secure Taiwan Association Corporation, also argued that Xi is prioritizing power consolidation over immediate PLA combat readiness as he prepares for another 5-10 years in power.

He added that despite purges that could unsettle the PLA, Xi is confident the military will remain under his control and continue serving as a stable political tool.