Xi's military purge doesn't affect Taiwan takeover timeline: Scholars

Washington, Jan. 26 (CNA) Senior personnel changes in China's military in recent days have not altered the timetable for potential military action against Taiwan, according to analyses by scholars in the United States and Taiwan.

China's Ministry of National Defense announced on Saturday that Zhang Youxia (張又俠), a member of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Politburo and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli (劉振立), chief of the CMC's Joint Staff Department, are under investigation for suspected disciplinary and legal violations.

With the removal of Zhang and Liu, five of the seven members of the 20th Central Military Commission formed in 2022 have now fallen, leaving only Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin (張升民).

Matthew Johnson, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, said in an article titled "Late Stalinism in Beijing" published Monday that the latest shake-up has not fundamentally changed the timetable for seizing Taiwan.

Johnson said the purge at most reflects internal judgments that political loyalty and command coherence are prerequisites for military preparedness.

Tristan Tang (湯廣正), an associate fellow at the Taiwan-based Secure Taiwan Associate (STA), said separately that military indicators show Zhang and Liu lost influence because their war preparation efforts failed to meet expectations.

Official briefings accused the two generals of causing serious damage to "combat power building," a charge not seen in an earlier case involving He Weidong (何衛東), he said.

Tang said publicly available information suggests Zhang and Liu may not have met Xi's military preparedness requirements related to attacking Taiwan and may have expressed dissent or resistance within the PLA.

Although China's military is unlikely to attack Taiwan in the near term, training activities and military drills may become more aggressive and frequent under successors willing to implement Xi's military blueprint, he added.