China would suffer 100,000 fatalities in Taiwan invasion: Report

Taipei, Jan. 6 (CNA) China could sustain up to 100,000 military fatalities if it invaded Taiwan through amphibious landings, resulting in its ultimate retreat, but it would likely gain control over Taiwan's offshore Kinmen and Matsu islands, according to a report published Monday by an American think tank.

The report, titled "If China Attacks Taiwan," published by the German Marshall Fund, which is partially funded by the United States government, sought to predict the consequences China would suffer if it pursued military action against Taiwan, in the event of a "major war" and a "minor conflict."

According to Zack Cooper, one of the report's authors, a major war with Taiwan would start with amphibious landings in Taiwan by Chinese forces, coupled with attacks on the Taiwanese military, as well as U.S. forces in Japan and Guam.

Although Chinese forces would be able to land on Taiwan, their supply lines would be cut by "successful Taiwanese and US strikes on ships and aircraft crossing the [Taiwan] Strait," wrote Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Under these circumstances, the belligerents would engage in "several months of heavy fighting" that results in Chinese forces suffering "massive losses" of up to 100,000 troops killed, according to the report.

This would force China to "eventually surrender on the condition that its forces on Taiwan are repatriated to the mainland without harm."

Meanwhile, Taiwan would suffer about 50,000 military casualties and 50,000 civilian casualties, the U.S. would lose 5,000 military personnel and 1,000 civilians, and Japan would lose 1,000 military personnel and 500 civilians, the report estimates.

Notably, although the war would end with the withdrawal of Chinese forces from Taiwan's main island, "Chinese forces would retain control of Kinmen and Matsu Islands," the report says.

The document, released one week after China held large-scale military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, encircling the country, also simulated international responses to a "major war" and "minor conflict" with Taiwan.

The report sought to analyze China's perception of those reactions, basing its assessments on the backlash sparked by the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989, the 2014-2015 Umbrella Movement and the 2019-2020 Anti-Extradition Law protests in Hong Kong, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Among the several dozen possible responses from the international community in the event of a major war, only four were deemed to exact a "high cost" by China, according to the report.

These include "freezing the assets of Chinese leaders," which has a high likelihood, and three scenarios with "low" likelihood: "signing a NATO-like Asian alliance," "recognizing Taiwan's independence," and "signing a treaty alliance with Taiwan."

Meanwhile, the international response would be more tempered in the event of a minor conflict between Taiwan and China, which Cooper defined as weeks-long air and maritime battles, breaches of Taiwan's territorial waters and airspace, and a "quarantine" of major Taiwanese ports.

In this scenario, countries would simply issue travel warnings for China and release "critical public statements," which would be considered "low cost" by Beijing, the report says.