Taiwan's 2025 GDP growth revised downwards to 3.10%

Taipei, May 28 (CNA) Taiwan's government statistics agency has slightly lowered its forecast for the country's GDP growth in 2025 to 3.10 percent due to global economic uncertainties that could weaken consumer confidence and investment momentum.

In a statement Wednesday, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) revised its February forecast of 3.14 percent growth in 2025 down 0.04 percentage points, even if its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP growth came in strong at 5.48 percent.

Overall, the DGBAS expected GDP growth of 5.35 percent in the first half of the year but only 1 percent in the second half.

It also revised its growth figures for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024 to 3.82 percent and 4.84 percent, up from 2.90 percent and 4.59 percent estimated originally.

The strong first quarter and first half growth estimates reflected strength in exports "as clients front-loaded purchases ahead of U.S. tariff measures, but a contraction is expected in the second half of the year," the DGBAS said in the statement.

Exports in the first quarter primarily benefited from the strength of the ICT and semiconductor sectors, which "continue to benefit from strong demand driven by AI applications, rising [computing] needs, and infrastructure investments by cloud service providers and most national governments," it said.

As the year progresses, however, the fallout from "escalating trade protectionism and heightened policy uncertainty" will take its toll on exports, especially "in certain overcapacity industries," the DGBAS statement said.

Consumption could be hurt by faltering consumer confidence caused by "rising global economic uncertainty and sharp financial market fluctuations," while investment momentum may be hurt by a slowdown in the housing market and geopolitical and trade uncertainties, it said.

The agency's estimate for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also revised downward by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88 percent for 2025 as a whole, with declines in oil and raw material costs and the Taiwan dollar's appreciation offsetting increases in food prices and rents.