Consumer confidence down as credit controls cool property market

Taipei, Nov. 27 (CNA) Taiwan's consumer confidence weakened for the second straight month in November as selective credit controls introduced by the central bank continued to tamp down the real estate market, National Central University (NCU) said Wednesday.

Citing a survey conducted from Nov. 18-21, NCU said the local consumer confidence index (CCI) fell 1.57 points from a month earlier to 75.49 in November after a 0.78-point month-on-month decrease in October.

The CCI gauges people's confidence in consumer prices, the local economic climate, stock market, likelihood of purchasing durable goods, employment prospects and family finances over the next six months.

Dachrahn Wu (吳大任), director of the NCU Economic Research Center, said real estate-related indices declined significantly in November, as the property market continued to feel the impact of selective credit controls imposed by the central bank in September.

The central bank measures -- including the lowering of the loan-to-value ratio on housing loans and raising the reserve requirement ratio for lenders, in order to prevent a housing bubble -- caused banks to tighten access to credit for housing purchases, Wu said.

While the measures have only a "limited" impact on home builders and the owners of multiple homes, they could leave people with poorer credit unable to access loans, Wu said.

The status of low-income prospective home buyers will therefore have to be watched closely as the market tightens, Wu said, due to its potential to cause public anger if not handled properly.

Of the six factors that make up the November CCI, the sub-index on the likelihood of purchasing durable goods, such as homes and cars, saw the steepest drop, falling 4.59 points to 103.1, its lowest level since February 2023.

In NCU surveys, a CCI sub-index score of 0-100 indicates pessimism, while a score of 100-200 shows optimism.

Meanwhile, the sub-index on the likelihood of purchasing stocks over the next six months fell by the second-largest margin, 4.41 points, to 55.88, amid uncertainty over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs or other policies that could disrupt markets, Wu said.

Of the other four sub-indexes, only confidence regarding price expectations finished higher than last month, rising 0.02 points to 41.79.

The other three categories -- sentiments regarding family finances, employment, and the local economic climate over the next six months -- moved lower by 0.16, 0.14 and 0.12, respectively, from a month earlier to 89.21, 78.04 and 84.91 in November, the survey found.

The university's CCI survey in November collected 3,062 valid questionnaires from consumers in Taiwan aged 20 or over. It had a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points.