Taiex forecast to hit almost 35,000 points in 2026 on AI boom

Taipei, Dec. 6 (CNA) Taiwan's benchmark stock index, the Taiex, could hit as high as 35,000 points in 2026 as it continues to ride the global boom in artificial intelligence development, according to major advisory firms.

President Capital Management offered the most optimistic outlook among five firms recently interviewed by CNA, saying the index will hit 34,988.

Its president, Liao Wan-ting (廖婉婷), said AI applications are expected to extend from servers to edge AI devices such as smart glasses, driving the continued growth of AI-related stocks and supporting a higher Taiex next year.

This year, the Taiex hit a low of 17,391.76 on April 9 after the Donald Trump administration threatened exorbitant tariffs on most of the United States' main trading partners, before rebounding strongly.

It closed at 27,980.89 on Friday, up 21.47 percent so far this year and up 61 percent from the April 9 low on easing tariff concerns, AI enthusiasm, and expectations of more U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Capital Investment Management President Fan Chen-hung (范振鴻) said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Delta Electronics Inc., MediaTek Inc., and Quanta Computer Inc. -- Taiwan's top five tech companies by market value -- have all benefited from AI momentum.

Fan forecast that the Taiex would challenge 34,000 points next year, and he believed that the five companies, which now account for 52.8 percent of the market's capitalization, will continue to dominate the broader market.

First Capital Management Chairman Huang Yi-ting (黃詣庭) also expressed confidence that the global AI trend will be sustained and that Taiwan will remain a major beneficiary.

He expected TSMC, which represents more than 40 percent of the Taiex's market cap alone, to post earnings per share of NT$75 (US$2.40) next year and help the Taiex move higher.

The market has expected TSMC's EPS to exceed NT$60 this year.

Huang predicted the Taiex could reach 31,000 points in 2026, and possibly 33,000, if the economy improves further.

Fubon Securities Investment Services Chairman Chen Yi-kuang (陳奕光) anticipated that the index will hit 32,000 points and could go as high as 34,000 in a best-case scenario.

He expected ample market liquidity and the Fed's anticipated rate cuts to contribute to the AI-driven momentum.

Hua Nan Securities Investment Management Chairman Lu Jen-chieh (呂仁傑) said he did not expect the AI bubble to burst soon and forecast the Taiex to climb as high as 32,000 next year.