Taiwan university freshman population to fall 26% by 2041: Ministry

Taipei, Aug. 15 (CNA) Taiwan's university freshman population is projected to decline by an average of 3,400 students a year over the next 16 academic years, falling from 205,000 now to 151,000 by 2041-42, according to the Ministry of Education (MOE).

That represents a decrease of 26.34 percent.

According to the MOE's recent student enrollment forecast, all levels of Taiwan's education system are expected to continue feeling the effects of the country's declining birth rate.

MOE data showed the number of university freshmen fell from 270,000 in the 2015-16 academic year to 205,000 in 2025-26.

After fluctuating slightly between the 2030-31 and 2033-34 academic years, the number of freshmen is expected to resume its decline, reaching 151,000 in 2041-42.

The MOE said it will continue adjusting university admission quotas in response to the declining birth rate while encouraging institutions to voluntarily reduce enrollment.

Admission quotas will be adjusted based on factors including educational quality, faculty structure, student-teacher ratios and enrollment rates, while allowing universities discretion over a portion of places.

Yu Jung-hui (尤榮輝), president of the Union of Private School Educators, said 17 private universities and colleges have closed since Kao Fong College of Digital Contents in Pingtung County became Taiwan's first higher education institution to shut down in 2014.

With the freshman population expected to fall to another low in the 2028-29 academic year, Yu warned that another wave of university closures could follow.

He said with no sign that the declining birth rate will reverse, alongside rising operating costs, frozen tuition fees and growing enrollment at public universities, only 30 to 40 private universities and colleges could remain by around the 2041-42 academic year, roughly one-third to one-half of the current total.

Private institutions in financial difficulty despite cutting costs and seeking new sources of revenue should consider being acquired by a business group or publicly listed company, Yu said. He added that universities could also explore mergers before their financial situation deteriorates further.