U.S. support more likely as Taiwan more willing, able to fight: Blair

Taipei, June 11 (CNA) The increase in both Taiwan's military capabilities and willingness to defend itself makes it "much more likely" the United States will come to its aid in the event of Chinese aggression, former head of the U.S. Pacific Command Dennis Blair said Wednesday.

Blair, who is in Taipei for a civilian-organized tabletop exercise in which he is a participant, was responding to a reporter asking team leaders of the exercise to gauge U.S. willingness to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

According to Blair, two factors will influence a U.S. president's decision on whether to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese military invasion: how the conflict starts and whether Taiwan has the ability and willingness to defend itself.

The second factor, in particular, would "have a great deal of effect" on whether the United States would become involved or not," Blair noted.

"I've been coming to Taiwan for the most recent 20 years, participating in Taiwanese exercises, observing Taiwan, and I certainly see that the ability of Taiwan to defend itself, to defend against Chinese aggression, the willingness to do so has been increasing.

And that would mean that the United States would be much more likely to come to the assistance of Taiwan under this matter of great concern," he said.

Blair referenced pledges by former U.S. President Joe Biden and a recent remark by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that the U.S. would resort to military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion as indications of the U.S.' commitment to Taiwan's defense.

The former U.S. national intelligence chief also referenced the Taiwan Relations Act, which, in addition to saying the U.S. will ensure Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities, states that the U.S. considers any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by non-peaceful means a matter of "grave concern."

"This means it may involve military force," he said.

However, if the conflict was triggered by Taiwanese provocations, such as moves toward Taiwan independence, the U.S. would be less likely to become involved, he said.

For both the American and Taiwanese governments, the objective is to deter, prevent, and discourage any kind of Chinese aggression by having enough capability, and by making it clear that "we would fight if it comes to that," Blair concluded.

From 2003-2007, Blair participated in Taiwan's Han Kuang Military Exercises as a senior observer, during which he made invaluable suggestions to Taiwan that completed the infrastructure of the critical drills -- for example the adoption of the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) computerized wargaming system and the Joint Training System (JTS), according to Taiwan's former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), who heads the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security, one of the organizers of the wargames.