ANALYSIS/China highlights Taiwan's HIMARS as major threat in latest military drills: Experts

Taipei, Jan. 4 (CNA) China highlighted the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) Taiwan purchased from the United States during a recent large-scale military exercise, citing the precision weapons as a major threat because of their ability to conduct "deep counterstrikes" against PLA rocket units and logistics, military experts said.

China staged the exercise in waters and airspace around Taiwan from Dec. 29 to Dec. 31, with live-fire drills conducted on Dec. 30 in the Taiwan Strait.

The drills led to the cancellation of all 84 flights between Taiwan and its outlying Kinmen and Matsu islands. Hundreds of international flights were also delayed, affecting more than 100,000 passengers.

According to a report aired by China's state-run broadcaster CCTV on Dec. 29, HIMARS was singled out during the drill, with a soldier saying that target information on the systems had been confirmed, followed by a commander ordering long-range rockets to be fired immediately.

The same day, the China Coast Guard (CCG) released a poster depicting a CCG vessel intercepting a shipment of HIMARS aboard an Evergreen Marine freighter. Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源), chairman of the Secure Taiwan Association Corporation, said the image appeared to be a response to the U.S.' recent seizures of two oil tankers off Venezuela, whose biggest oil importer is none other than China.

'Deep counterstrike' weapons

Asked about China's focus on HIMARS, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the government-sponsored Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), described it as an "unexpected finding."

Su said HIMARS are precision weapons suited for deep counterstrikes, with an estimated error margin of about 10 meters.

"They can be deployed against a PLA amphibious landing operation to strike enemy lines of communication behind the front lines, which would likely cause the operation to fail," Su said.

He said the PLA was likely alarmed by HIMARS due to the US$11.1 billion arms sale package announced by the U.S. government on Dec. 17, which included 82 HIMARS and 420 M57 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. The deal would expand Taiwan's HIMARS fleet to 111 units and increase its ATACMS arsenal more than fivefold.

Yang agreed, saying China likely views HIMARS as a "real threat."

The ATACMS, which has a range of 300 kilometers, could threaten much of China's Fujian Province if deployed on Taiwan's offshore islands in the Taiwan Strait, Yang said.

Another INDSR researcher, Kao Chih-jung (高志榮), said HIMARS equipped with ATACMS currently offers Taiwan its most time-efficient counterstrike option, taking just over seven minutes to reach targets in China, roughly the same amount of time needed for China's long-range rockets featured during the drill to reach Taiwan proper.

"HIMARS are significantly faster than Hsiung Feng II-E cruise missiles, and faster and less risky than flying fighter jets to launch air-to-surface cruise missiles," Kao said.

He described the 82 HIMARS systems, along with the Tactical Mission Network (TMN) software included in the US$11.1 billion deal, as the "crown jewels" of the package.

"The TOW missiles and Javelins [in the same package] are designed to counter the later stages of an assault," Kao said. "If we can hold our own in the early stages, we can then worry about the later phases."

HIMARS could also be used to destroy PLA missile launcher trucks, while TMN would enable faster intelligence sharing across services, allowing for more timely strikes, Kao said.

With the help of TMN, HIMARS could also be synchronized with the proposed T-Dome multilayered air defense system to conduct deep counterstrikes against enemy artillery storage facilities and mobile launchers, he added.

Weaknesses and limitations

The experts cautioned, however, that HIMARS are not without vulnerabilities.

Yang said that if the PLA has indeed obtained information on HIMARS deployment locations in Taiwan, it could indicate that one or more bases or operating sites have been exposed.

He urged Taiwan's military to regularly rotate HIMARS locations and conduct "shoot-run-reload" drills to ensure each system can operate from different positions for every strike.

Taiwan should also strengthen camouflage measures to reduce the risk of detection by Chinese satellites, Yang said.

Drawing on lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, Su said that while HIMARS has proven effective against Russian forces, the systems remain vulnerable to satellite interference that could cause missiles to deviate from their intended trajectories.

"This is something we should be alert to," Su said.

Kao said one reason the U.S. agreed to sell ATACMS to Taiwan is that Washington views the missiles as "defensive weapons" with a limited range, which helps avoid a major impact on its relations with Beijing.

He suggested Taiwan lobby the U.S. to sell it Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), which have a range of up to 500 kilometers, to better meet its operational needs.