INTERVIEW/Taiwan, U.S. to outmatch China militarily in 2027: Ex-Pacific Command chief

Taipei, June 16 (CNA) The United States and Taiwan will maintain a collective military advantage over China in and around the Taiwan Strait if Beijing attempts aggression against Taiwan in 2027, as many have speculated, according to former U.S. Pacific Command head Dennis Blair.

"2027 to me is just one date. And as I look at it, that will be a date at which both Taiwanese and American capability will be actually higher relative to PLA capabilities," Blair, who was in Taipei for a series of civilian-held tabletop exercises, said during a joint media interview that included CNA on Thursday.

Blair was asked to comment on the 2027 timeline, which some believe could be a critical point in China's plans to invade Taiwan.

In congressional testimony in 2021, then-commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Davidson's comments have since been echoed by many U.S. officials, including most recently U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Forum on May 31.

However, Blair said the 2027 date was set to coincide with the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (in fact it is the founding of the PLA), making it feel more like a "slogan" than an actual plan.

Commenting on China's efforts to undertake force modernization since the 1990s, Blair said he sees "a much more widespread modernization, not a modernization that is simply directed at invading Taiwan."

For instance, he said, the massive investments China has made in developing its nuclear deterrent, space systems, carrier battle groups and long-range logistical support are "not specialized for a Taiwan invasion," Blair explained.

Blair, who is also a former director of U.S. national intelligence, said that while the U.S. began significantly increasing its defense spending around 2003, later than China, "we began building new types of weapons which were specifically designed to counter the weapons that China had built 10, 15 years before."

These included increased air missile defense hypersonic weapons that would pose a serious threat to Chinese military installations, he said.

Blair added that if, by 2027, Taiwan has taken steps to strengthen its defense capabilities -- for example, by developing autonomous vehicles to support combat on land and in nearby waters -- then "the balance in 2027 will still be favorable for the U.S. and Taiwan."

Presence of China's aircraft carriers

Blair was also asked whether the unprecedented presence of two Chinese aircraft carriers in the Pacific indicates the U.S. and its democratic allies have failed to provide sufficient deterrence against Chinese naval activities in the region.

On June 10, Japan's Defense Ministry said that China's Shandong aircraft carrier, along with four other vessels, had entered Japan's exclusive economic zone the previous day.

The announcement came just one day after the ministry reported that the Liaoning, another Chinese aircraft carrier, had entered waters near Minamitorishima, a remote island east of Iwo Jima.

Blair said that in peacetime, civilian shipping or warships can sail in international waters around the world, unencumbered by any opposition or international boundaries.

"But for the purposes of deterrence, the question is can you sustain your naval presence when there is a war going on, when a war starts?" Blair argued.

By expanding its military projection, China may have wanted to use "gunboat diplomacy" to force countries like the U.S., Japan and Taiwan to make "political concessions," Blair said.

"But what really matters is what will happen in the event of conflict -- Chinese ships operating in these areas would be sunk," Blair said.

"Therefore, operating there in peacetime does not have real political importance," he said.