U.S.-Taiwan military plateau may be a positive: Ex-Pentagon staffer

Taipei, Jan. 15 (CNA) An absence of any major escalation in Taiwan-U.S. military cooperation in 2026 should not necessarily be viewed as a negative, as it could indicate that the regional security environment has stabilized, an ex-Pentagon official said Thursday.

At a seminar in Taipei, former U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel Tony Hu (胡振東) said military cooperation between Taipei and Washington has progressed significantly, noting that many interactions now considered routine were not possible when he worked at the Pentagon and the American Institute in Taiwan before China's leader Xi Jinping (習近平) took office in 2013.

According to Hu, these changes reflect Washington's adjustments to its military engagement with Taiwan in response to perceived threats from the Chinese Communist Party. "If people are hoping for a major breakthrough, we would need Xi Jinping to give it a push."

Meanwhile, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies CEO Dong Li-wen (董立文) and Academia Sinica research fellow Lin Cheng-yi (林正義) told the seminar on U.S. President Donald Trump's first year in office that they expected the international environment to be less turbulent in 2026.

Dong said that compared with the 2020-2025 period, "the international security environment in 2026 will be relatively more stable, with a much lower likelihood of events that could fundamentally disrupt the global order."

Dong cited the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, a "stalemate" in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the easing of conflicts in the Middle East as factors reducing uncertainty.

While U.S. policy under Trump remains a key variable, Dong said any overseas military actions in 2026 are unlikely to match the scale seen in 2025, when U.S. forces were involved in operations in seven countries.

As most countries have spent the past 10 months adapting to Trump's tariff policies, Dong suggested that a major economic shock in the coming year was less likely.

Lin said the international community should now be more psychologically prepared for Trump's governing style, adding that the U.S. president's biggest challenge in 2026 may come not from China but from midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 3.

A Republican defeat could be followed by a strong backlash, Lin said, including impeachment efforts in U.S. Congress.

However, Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂), president of the Institute for National Policy Research and Taiwan's former foreign minister, warned that deepening polarization in U.S. domestic politics could still affect the outcome of that country's legislative elections.