ANALYSIS/Taiwan faces pressure to boost military spending after Trump win: Experts

Taipei, Nov. 6 (CNA) With Donald Trump set to return to the White House next year, Taiwanese scholars said his administration will maintain strong support for Taiwan but will also pressure the country to shoulder more responsibility for its self-defense and boost military expenditure.

Before the final votes confirmed Trump's victory on Wednesday morning (U.S. time), the Republican candidate and 47th U.S. President-elect delivered a speech declaring victory and vowing a "golden age of America."

During his election campaign, Trump discussed challenges in defending Taiwan due to its distance from the U.S. and criticized the nation for stealing the U.S. chip industry.

The 78-year-old, set to assume office again on Jan. 20, 2025, has also suggested that Taiwan pay the U.S. for protection and proposed that the island country's defense spending increase to 10 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Trump's remarks on protection fees reflect his view that Taiwan should shoulder more financial and practical obligations in security cooperation, Chen Wen-chia (陳文甲), a senior advisor at the Taipei-based Institute for National Policy Research, told CNA.

As a result, Chen said, future U.S.-Taiwan military exchanges would likely focus on Taiwan's responsibility to enhance its defense capabilities, including boosting military spending.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the defense ministry's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that Trump's remarks on protection fees and Taiwan's defense budget were likely exaggerated.

He said that the real message of those remarks was that "the U.S. is willing to support the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries, but expects these nations to contribute more resources to their self-defense efforts."

In terms of arms sales to Taiwan, Chen noted that the incoming Trump administration may expand weapons sales to include advanced weapons such as air defense systems and drones.

While those sales could help Taiwan counter the increasingly complex military threat it faces, Chen predicted the U.S. would also request Taiwan allocate a greater portion of its budget to defense.

Following the same vein, Su noted that during Trump's previous term, he started selling arms sales to Taiwan on a more flexible case-by-case review basis, while also deepening U.S.-Taiwan military exchanges and joint training.

Asked about the outlook for joint military training between the two countries, Chen noted that Trump has repeatedly emphasized Taiwan taking steps to defend itself, meaning U.S. military training assistance would likely become more limited.

He added that direct training assistance would likely be reduced, but more technical support and equipment would be provided.

Chen also said that the U.S.-Taiwan military relations would likely further develop, but may also become more transactional, with Taiwan facing greater responsibilities and financial pressure.

Chen Shih-min (陳世民), an associate professor at National Taiwan University's Department of Political Science, said that the potential impact on U.S.-Taiwan military relations under Trump's leadership would depend on the foreign policy and national security officials Trump appoints.

Members of the traditional establishment within the Republican Party are still internationalists, holding the belief that the U.S. should protect democratic nations, he said.

He noted that if pro-Taiwan establishment figures like Mike Pompeo or Marco Rubio were to assume key roles, they would likely continue Trump's first-term emphasis on strengthening security ties with Taiwan, potentially even revisiting breakthrough arms sales such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which is capable of directly striking targets within China.

If the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) faction takes the lead, key figures like Vice President-elect J.D. Vance will prioritize American interests to achieve their MAGA vision, avoiding entangling the U.S. in costly wars like the Vietnam War, Chen explained.

The approach by the MAGA faction could lead to a reduction in overseas military commitments, shifting U.S.-Taiwan security relations to a more interest-driven approach, he added.