ANALYSIS/China's Taiwan policy driven by Xi agenda, not Lai rhetoric: Scholars

Taipei, May 6 (CNA) China's approach to Taiwan is unlikely to change regardless of remarks by President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), which some have labeled as "provocative," as Beijing's actions are more closely driven by President Xi Jinping's (習近平) goal of achieving unification than by rhetoric from Taipei, scholars told CNA on Tuesday.

After Lai took office last year, some have attributed cross-strait tensions to "provocative" statements made by him, said Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University.

He cited examples such as Lai's inauguration speech last year and his announcement of 17 major strategies targeting China in mid-March -- both of which were followed by large-scale Chinese military drills around Taiwan, widely interpreted as Beijing's response to Lai's comments.

In his May 20 inauguration speech, Lai said that "the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan's official name) and the People's Republic of China (PRC, China's official name) are not subordinate to each other." At a news conference following a national security meeting on March 13, Lai noted that China meets the definition of a "foreign hostile force" under the Anti-Infiltration Act.

Wang said China has long shaped a narrative that as long as Taiwan's president refrains from provocation, Beijing will not take drastic action.

"However, if the president's words or actions are perceived as provocative, then any response from China is seen as justified [under the narrative]," he said, noting that what constitutes "provocation" is determined solely by the Chinese authorities.

Wang said that the narrative of justifying China's actions as responses to Lai's so-called "provocative" moves "puts the cart before the horse," explaining that Xi has adopted "a far more aggressive approach" toward unification with Taiwan than his predecessors.

"I think even if President Lai said nothing at all, we would still see the same outcome," Wang said.

He said that Lai is still maintaining former President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) non-provocative approach to preserving the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, but has his own interpretation of Taiwan's sovereignty, independence and the ROC Constitution.

Echoing Wang, Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, said that it is a "legacy issue" for Xi to unify Taiwan and that even if Lai kept quiet, "I don't think that this is going to change Xi Jinping's policy at all."

"China doesn't need to be provoked -- its policy, its approach is not going to change regardless of what has been happening," she said, while stressing that Lai's statements are not provoking China.

With the ruling Democratic Progressive Party now in office for a third consecutive term - for the first time since Taiwan's democratization - Xi is losing Taiwan more and more, Hashmi said.

Having been based in Taiwan for five years, she added that this sense of loss has made Chinese authorities feel "more threatened," which is why "we're seeing more intensity and more frequency" in their military drills.

Meanwhile, Hashmi on Monday criticized an article titled "Trump Should Rein In Taiwan," published in Foreign Policy last Thursday and authored by two senior fellows - Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim - at the Washington-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The article argued that the U.S. government has "so far overlooked Lai's subtler political escalations," and that the Trump administration "should rein in Lai before he mistakes Washington's passivity for approval and entangles the United States in a potentially calamitous war."

Describing the article as "utter nonsense" in a post on X (formerly Twitter), Hashmi said that Lai has been advocating for peace, preserving the status quo, and governing 23 million people while supporting self-determination -- actions that, she said, are not examples of "subtle political escalation," but rather "a fundamental responsibility of leadership."

During a phone interview with CNA on Tuesday afternoon, Hashmi further said that it is unlikely Trump will pressure Lai to avoid statements that may provoke China -- such as urging him to "respect Chinese red lines" -- unless and until China offers Trump or the U.S. something more significant in return.

"We have already seen that they [referring to the U.S. and China] are just fighting neck to neck and I don't really see any concession from the Chinese side to the U.S. at all… then Taiwan is definitely not going to be sacrificed in any way," she said.

As to what approach the U.S. should take toward Taiwan and China, Wang said that if Washington wants to prevent cross-strait conflict caused by misunderstanding, it should move toward adopting a clearer and more transparent policy toward both sides, rather than continuing with its current policy of strategic ambiguity.

"The logic shouldn't be to keep U.S. policy [on the Taiwan-China issue] ambiguous and leave both Taiwan and China guessing what Washington has in mind," Wang said.

"In fact, that kind of uncertainty is more likely to lead to misjudgments about red lines or misunderstandings of U.S. policy by both sides," he added.