ANALYSIS/Lai reaffirms ability to manage U.S. ties, urges national unity: Scholars

Taipei, May 20 (CNA) President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) used a speech marking the first anniversary of his inauguration to reaffirm his ability to manage U.S.-Taiwan relations and ease tensions with the opposition amid domestic and international pressure, scholars told CNA, as he enters the second year of his presidency.

On Tuesday, the anniversary of Lai taking office, he delivered a speech at the Presidential Office focusing on key issues, including domestic policy and U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Potential U.S. pressure behind goodwill

The Lai administration has faced resistance in implementing its policies since May 20 last year, mainly because opposition parties -- the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) -- hold a majority in the Legislature, notably resulting in government budgets being frozen or cut.

In a move to strengthen "cooperation among our political parties," Lai said in his speech that he will instruct his national security team to "initiate a major national security briefing for the chairs of opposition parties."

Titus Chen (陳至潔), deputy director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, said such an initiative has never previously been implemented in Taiwan and reflects Lai's intention to extend goodwill to the opposition.

Such a move by Lai to ease the tensions between his administration and the KMT and TPP led Chen to suggest that there may have been a request from the U.S., "or that the president and his team may have felt pressure from Washington."

He explained that Lai's team may have taken note of recent articles by scholars from prominent U.S. think tanks suggesting that the U.S. government should "rein in" Lai, warning that if he became too hardline, he could become difficult to control.

Chen cited two such pieces: a Foreign Affairs article titled "The Risk of War in the Taiwan Strait Is High -- and Getting Higher" by experts including Bonny Lin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a Foreign Policy article titled "Trump Should Rein In Taiwan" by two senior fellows at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"These articles were written by Washington-based scholars who have policy influence in the U.S. government," Chen said, noting that Taiwan's national security team is likely aware of "the anxiety coming from the American side," and therefore cannot "simply ignore it."

Easing 'uncertainty' in the international community

In the same vein, Wen-Ti Sung (宋文笛), a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, said the national security briefing initiative is Lai's way of extending an olive branch to Taiwan's opposition parties, "formally bringing them into the deliberations and giving them skin in the game."

It is also intended to demonstrate to the international community that Lai has "tried what he can to build domestic consensus," Sung noted.

With the opposition continuing to boycott proceedings in the Legislature and broader political gridlock persisting, there is "uncertainty" in the international community about whether Taiwan can "get its own domestic house in order," he said.

"If it cannot, how can Taiwan pursue a serious, concerted and longer-term defense policy?" Sung said, explaining that such international concern underscores the need for Lai to demonstrate efforts at political unity and institutional stability.

Different messages

When addressing U.S.-Taiwan relations, Lai quoted a verse from the Bible, "As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another," saying that among friends, there is always "some friction," but such friction is "always resolvable."

Sung said Lai is signaling that friction among friends is "natural" and should not be seen as a sign that the U.S.-Taiwan partnership is unworkable, even after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed the now-pending "reciprocal tariffs" on the island country.

"Only friendships that have survived the test of conflicts can be the most genuine and enduring," he added.

Sharing a similar view, Chen said that Lai's use of biblical language was directed at an American audience, as most Taiwanese are not Christians and would be less familiar with such metaphors.

Lai's message to Washington, Chen added, was that while Taiwan is willing to negotiate, the U.S. must also take Taiwan's interests and needs into account.

"We can manage our differences, we can manage disputes, and we can still be partners -- it's not like everything will fall apart just because we disagree with each other," he added.

According to Chen, Lai also used the Bible verse to ease skepticism within Taiwanese society toward the U.S., which is why the president emphasized key terms like "partners" and "values" in other parts of the speech.

"To reassure the Taiwanese public not to be skeptical of the U.S., and not to doubt the government's ability to negotiate with Washington," he added.

No mention of China

Unexpected by many, Lai did not address cross-strait relations in his prepared remarks -- unlike in his inaugural speech and last October's National Day address -- and instead said only, "The aggressor is the one that undermines peace," when asked how he plans to handle tensions with China during the media Q&A session.

"It appears to be a response to the foreign policy direction of the new U.S. administration," Chen said.

With Trump recently adopting a less confrontational approach toward China in the hope of striking trade and economic deals, U.S.-China relations appear to be easing. In response, Taiwan -- caught between the two powers -- has "little room to continue emphasizing the threat from China," he said.

Echoing Chen, Sung said that Lai's decision not to mention cross-strait relations in his speech reflects an effort to "dial down the messaging" and "keep Taiwan's head low."

Such an approach, he said, helps Taiwan avoid "getting into anybody's crosshairs" amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following Trump's return to the White House in January, as his administration adopts a "firing on all cylinders" approach to economic diplomacy.

Asked why Lai still referred to Beijing as an "aggressor" during the Q&A session, Chen said Lai's aides likely anticipated such questions would arise and advised him to address the China threat during the Q&A rather than in the main speech.

"That way, it wouldn't become the focus of the speech, but he could still make his position clear," he added.