ANALYSIS/China's live-fire drills in Pingtan 'routine': Experts

Taipei, Oct. 22 (CNA) China's live-fire drills in waters close to its Fujian province on Tuesday were "routine" and unlikely to be a response to the recent transit of the United States and Canadian warships in the Taiwan Strait, according to experts on cross-strait relations.

On Monday, China's Pingtan Maritime Safety Administration posted a sailing advisory, which zoned out a no-sailing area off Niushan Island in Pingtan County, Fujian province, in light of live-fire drills scheduled for 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday.

Niushan Island is the closest point on China's coast to Taiwan proper.

A national security official noted that Chinese authorities said they conducted at least three live-fire exercises in the county over the past six months, including in the waters near Niushan Island on May 9, and along the coasts of Hengshan Island on June 25 and Fengqiushan on Aug. 15.

China also held large-scale military drills around Taiwan titled "Joint Sword-2024B" on Oct. 14 after President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) delivered his National Day address on Oct. 10.

Despite the relative proximity to Taiwan, Tuesday's live-fire drills appeared to be a "routine" military exercise, said Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor at National Cheng Kung University's Department of Political Science.

"The drills on Oct. 14 were specifically aimed at expressing their stance in response to Lai's speech," Wang said, "but the current exercise appears to be routine, serving as an important practice location for potential future attacks on Taiwan."

Echoing Wang's remarks, Wu Se-chih (吳瑟致), director of Taiwan Thinktank's China Research Center, agreed that the live-fire drills were "routine" in nature.

China's response to Lai's speech had already been addressed with the "Joint Sword-2024B" actions, so Beijing would be unlikely to conduct follow-up drills as that would imply that the earlier exercises had been insufficient, Wu said.

However, some defense experts -- including Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) and Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌) from the defense ministry's Institute for National Defense and Security Research -- said earlier in the day that the Niushan live-fire drills aimed to vent Beijing's displeasure over the passage of U.S. and Canadian warships through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday.

But Wang said he did not consider Tuesday's drills to be a response to the warships' transits because if that were the case, they would be "too minor and limited in scope."

China does not want to take any major actions before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, Wang said, noting that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and U.S. President Joe Biden may meet during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in mid-November.

Echoing Wang's viewpoint, Wu said that the live-fire drills were not a response to the warships' transits since that "could likely escalate military confrontation between the U.S. and China, which Xi likely wants to avoid."

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, "excessive military pressure from China could actually harm future U.S.-China relations, whether in terms of negotiations or broader relationship development," he said.