ELECTION 2024/Chinese coercion expected to continue with Lai's win: Foreign scholars

Taipei, Jan. 14 (CNA) Chinese strategies involving economic coercion and psychological warfare against Taiwan are expected to continue following the victory of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) in the presidential election, scholars said Saturday.

"We are likely to see a continuation of China's economic coercion, psychological warfare and grey zone activities, political scientist Sana Hashmi told CNA after Lai declared victory.

Grey zone activities, the Indian expert explained, mainly involve exacerbating tensions that fall short of military aggression, including military drills, economic coercion, disinformation and information manipulation.

However, a conflict between China and Taiwan or a Chinese invasion is unlikely, the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation fellow argued.

With the difficulties currently facing the Chinese economy, an incursion is too risky, especially when the outcome of an invasion is uncertain, she explained.

Second, Taiwan under Lai will continue to focus on the status quo, she argued, adding that since there will be continuity in Taiwan's cross-strait policy, there is no reason for China to attack Taiwan.

Lai has been targeted by the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Beijing's propaganda machinery for his description of himself as a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence," although he has sought to walk back that characterization in recent months.

The Chinese Communist Party does not trust Lai and would have preferred a Taiwan People's Party (TPP) or KMT victory, according to Sara Newland, assistant professor of government at Smith College in the United States.

Therefore, in the aftermath of the election, Beijing could resort to some form of retaliation or intimidation tactics, given that Lai emerged victorious, she told CNA in an email on Saturday.

In line with Hashmi's comments, Newland said that the tactics might take on an economic dimension, such as the reversal of certain benefits provided by the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA).

The ECFA, signed in 2010 when Taiwan was under the KMT administration of then-President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), included an "early harvest" list for tariff concessions covering 557 Taiwan exports to China and 267 Chinese products bound for Taiwan.

The form of retaliation could also manifest in military exercises conducted in proximity to Taiwan or the adoption of diplomatic measures, like attempting to win over some of Taiwan's remaining diplomatic allies, Newland said.

At that time, Taiwan had formal ties with 22 nations. The number is now 13.

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▶ U.S, Japan, EU congratulate Taiwan on elections, emphasize cross-strait peace

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Jan. 11: Taiwan to assist businesses after China mulls suspending more tariff cuts

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Over the longer term, it is possible that the cross-strait policies of all three presidential candidates, Lai, KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), are unacceptable to Beijing, Newland argued.

All three campaigns voiced a commitment to maintaining some form of status quo. Therefore, even if Hou or Ko had been elected, the likelihood is there could have been a brief "honeymoon" period, but Chinese government pressure on Taiwan would have continued regardless, she added.