Trump could undermine alliances, posing risks for Taiwan: Experts

Washington, July 19 (CNA) Foreign relations experts have warned that U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could weaken alliances and undermine deterrence against China, posing risks for Taiwan.

Trump will face incumbent President Joe Biden in November if Biden withstands pressure to step aside due to his age. Their vastly different foreign policies have significant implications for Taiwan.

Jacques deLisle, director of the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Study of Contemporary China, told CNA on Friday that a Democratic victory would likely mean "a great deal of continuity" in Taiwan policy. A Trump victory, however, would be unpredictable, with Republican lawmakers likely following Trump's lead, posing risks for Taiwan.

One risk is Trump's "transactional approach" to diplomacy, he said, adding that the former president's demand Taiwan pay more for American defense mirrors his stance towards NATO.

He said while Taiwan generally does buy weapons, Trump believes Taiwan should "pay market prices."

DeLisle argued that Trump does not value American commitments to allies. Regardless of his view on Taiwan's security, he would likely weaken U.S. relationships with Japan, South Korea and other allies, affecting cooperation to deter China.

Since taking office in 2021, Biden has repeatedly stated his willingness to defend Taiwan, and in a June interview with Time, he did not rule out military action.

The importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has often been emphasized in U.S. bilateral and multilateral meetings with allies.

David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in "Taiwan's Trump Conundrum" published on Friday that a Trump victory would present allies with a president who views diplomacy as transactional.

"This dilemma will be keenly felt in Taiwan," he said.

Sacks mentioned that Trump was very popular in Taiwan before leaving office in 2021, marking the closest U.S.-Taipei relations since Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979.

However, Trump's recent comments on Taiwan cast doubt on whether this support would continue if he were re-elected.

Sacks observed that Taiwan had downplayed Trump's remarks by pointing to bipartisan support in the U.S. and the emphasis on Taiwan's importance by former Trump administration officials.

While this is true, the president has significant autonomy in foreign policy, and it may be unrealistic to expect Congress to restrain Trump's actions, Sacks said.

Some believe the U.S. should fully deter China from attacking Taiwan and, if deterrence fails, defend Taiwan due to its strategic location, economic significance and democratic governance.

These arguments aim to prevent negative impacts on the international order and U.S. alliances. However, such points may not convince Trump, Sacks wrote.

He further noted that Trump is skeptical of U.S. alliances, viewing them as "free riders."

If the U.S. does not defend Taiwan, it could signal to allies that they must take responsibility for their own security, which he believes would ultimately benefit the U.S.

Regarding Trump's claim that Taiwan has been stealing the American semiconductor industry, deLisle said he believed this was a misunderstanding.

Chip design and development are largely based in the U.S., while manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are in Taiwan. "That's a cooperative, not a competitive relationship," deLisle said.

Sacks concluded that Trump's comments on Taiwan are "fully consistent with his worldview" and that his view is "unlikely to change."

For Trump, international relations are often driven by bilateral economic ties, with geopolitics being secondary, believing as he does that Taiwan economically took advantage of the U.S., a perspective likely to influence his broader view of Taiwan-U.S. relations, Sacks said.