Potential tropical storm could affect Taiwan by the weekend: CWA

Taipei, July 22 (CNA) A tropical system on waters east of the Philippines could strengthen into a tropical storm as early as Thursday, which could affect Taiwan's coastal waters by the weekend, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said Wednesday.

The CWA said that the storm could prompt a sea warning, as the system's track is projected farther north.

CWA forecaster Cheng Chieh-jen (鄭傑仁) told CNA that the tropical disturbance east of the Philippines had previously been forecast to cross the Philippines before entering the South China Sea.

However, the latest forecasts from various countries indicate a more northerly track, making passage through the Bashi Channel the most likely scenario and potentially increasing its impact on Taiwan, he said.

As of noon Wednesday, the system was located 1,600 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip at Eluanbi, moving west-northwest at 20 kilometers per hour, according to Cheng.

Cheng said the northward shift means the system is less likely to be disrupted by land and will instead move over warmer ocean waters, conditions that are favorable for further intensification.

It is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday and could become Tropical Storm Noul, the 12th named storm of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season, sometime between Thursday and Friday, Cheng said.

He further said that the developing storm is currently forecast to make its closest approach to Taiwan on Friday and Saturday. As a result, the CWA does not rule out issuing a sea typhoon warning as early as Thursday, although that will depend on the storm's size.

The forecaster noted that the system's structure has not yet fully developed and requires continued monitoring.

If the current forecast track holds, Cheng said Saturday is expected to see the heaviest rainfall as the developing storm's peripheral circulation affects Taiwan, with localized heavy-to-torrential rain forecast for Hualien and Taitung counties in eastern Taiwan and the Hengchun Peninsula.