Taiwan's college freshman enrollment to fall to 146,000 by 2040: MOE

Taipei, Aug. 17 (CNA) Taiwan's Ministry of Education (MOE) has projected that first-year university enrollment will fall from 270,000 in 2015 to just 173,000 in 2028, and decline further to 146,000 by 2040.

In a report released Thursday, the MOE said enrollment dipped during the 2017 academic year, when the "Year of the Tiger effect" -- namely, a drop in births in 1998 during this Chinese zodiac year due to traditional cultural beliefs -- reduced the number of freshmen to 241,000.

A slight recovery of 7,000 students came in 2018 due to the "Year of the Dragon effect" -- an increase in births in 2000 due to positive associations with this Chinese zodiac year -- but the downward trend soon resumed.

The ministry forecast that numbers will rebound in 2030 to 209,000, spurred again by a Year of the Dragon marriage and childbirth boom and a birth encouragement policy implemented in 2011.

By 2040, however, the number is expected to fall again to 146,000, 56,000 fewer than in 2024 -- a 27.8 percent decrease.

The Union of Private School Educators said that with only 173,000 new students in 2028, public universities would take about 120,000, leaving private institutions possibly enrolling around just over 50,000.

The union said this would sustain only 50 to 60 private universities and colleges, putting about 40 at risk of closure.

The MOE also reported that total university enrollment, which stood at around 1.1 million before 2016, dropped by 149,000 between 2019 and 2024.

Looking ahead, the ministry said total enrollment will fall below 860,000 in 2025 and hit a low of 838,000 in 2029 due to the Year of the Tiger effect.

It will then likely rise to 911,000 in 2033 before dropping again to 725,000 by 2040.