AI-driven export boom lifts 2025 Taiwan GDP growth forecast to 4.45%

Taipei, Aug. 15 (CNA) Taiwan's government on Friday sharply raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.1 percent in May to 4.45 percent, citing a surge in exports and private investment fueled by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI).

Despite U.S. tariff hikes and possible semiconductor duties, the economy has remained resilient, Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) Department of Statistics chief Tsai Yu-tai (蔡鈺泰) said at a press conference.

Tsai attributed the upward revision to improved international forecasts for global economic and trade growth since May, the easing of concerns over AI-related disruptions, and U.S. policy changes that have accelerated AI infrastructure development.

He noted that early-year concerns -- such as the lower-cost AI computing from Chinese startup DeepSeek and cooling system issues with Nvidia's GB200 chips -- have not slowed the global rollout of AI data centers.

Supply bottlenecks for high-end ICT products have also been resolved, brightening Taiwan's export outlook, he said.

In addition, the U.S. government has eased some AI chip export restrictions introduced during the Joe Biden administration, encouraging faster AI data center construction and driving demand for related equipment, Tsai said.

AI momentum has not been dampened by tariff uncertainty, he added, prompting companies to boost capital expenditure. DGBAS now projects Taiwan's real exports will grow 23.74 percent in 2025, 12.3 percentage points higher than forecast in May, while real private investment is expected to rise 9.89 percent, up 4.12 points.

The DGBAS estimates Taiwan's merchandise exports will reach US$589.2 billion in 2025, up 24.04 percent from a year earlier. On this high base, exports are expected to edge up further to US$602.1 billion in 2026, an annual increase of 2.19 percent

However, domestic consumption remains weak. Tariff concerns have weighed on stock market activity, while uncertainty over automobile import duties has delayed purchases, leading DGBAS to cut its real private consumption growth forecast to 0.85 percent, the lowest in four years.

For 2026, the agency expects GDP growth of 2.81 percent, noting that while the overall economic picture is strong, performance varies across industries.

Supported by economic expansion and the appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, Taiwan's per capita GDP is projected to exceed US$40,000 for the first time in 2026, reaching US$40,019, the agency said.