Takaichi's landslide win shows no room for strategic ambiguity: Experts

Taipei, Feb. 9 (CNA) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in a snap lower house election shows that so-called strategic ambiguity has no room to survive under today's international political structure, Taiwanese experts said.

In an attempt to consolidate her leadership, Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister, dissolved the House of Representatives in late January. Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) went on to secure 316 of the lower house's 465 seats in Sunday's election, marking a record haul since the chamber adopted its current form in 2017.

The Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the LDP's coalition partner, won 36 seats, giving the ruling alliance more than three-quarters of the total seats in the lower house.

At a seminar in Taipei on Monday examining the results and implications of the Japanese election, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies CEO Dong Li-wen (董立文) cited Takaichi's remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency in November 2025 and highlighted their contrast with the approach of her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba, who he described as having taken a more moderate stance toward Beijing.

"Beijing did not merely pressure her in the hope that she would walk back her words," he said. "Instead, it sought to isolate her both internationally and domestically, aiming to deter other Japanese politicians from following her path -- but after a month, it found that approach did not work either way."

Dong attributed the LDP's sweeping victory to Takaichi's firm positioning, saying it has created greater diplomatic leeway for Japan and set the tone for a "pro-United States, anti-China and Taiwan-friendly" policy direction.

Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), director of National Sun Yat-sen University's Center for Japanese Studies, said the election result will help the Takaichi administration push forward its proposed 9.04 trillion yen (US$57.8 billion) defense budget.

About one-third of the spending will be directed toward Japan's Southwest Islands -- defined as the islands south of Kyushu -- which are widely seen as strategically critical in a Taiwan-related contingency, Kuo said.

He also pointed to the electoral defeats of Ichiro Ozawa and Katsuya Okada, who he described as Japan's "two iconic pro-China lawmakers." Okada pressed Takaichi last November to clarify what constitutes a Taiwan contingency.

Speaking to reporters on Sunday night after learning that the LDP had secured a majority of seats in the lower chamber, Takaichi said the party had formed a concrete vision for constitutional amendment, echoing her stated intent to grant the Japan Self-Defense Forces greater latitude to act when necessary, including in a Taiwan-related scenario.

While not ruling out the possibility, Kuo emphasized the difficulty of amending Japan's Constitution, calling it "the most difficult task in the world."

To amend the Constitution, a proposal must win approval from a two-thirds majority in both houses of the National Diet and then be backed by a majority of valid votes in a national referendum.

"Since the enactment of its Constitution in 1947, Japan has never held a referendum of any kind," Kuo noted, "not even when Shinzo Abe led the LDP to win 286 seats in 2017."

Kuo predicted that Takaichi would soon meet Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki to seek support. "If they agree to cooperate, the Takaichi Cabinet could establish a long-term, strong governing foundation," he said.

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor at the National Cheng Kung University Department of Political Science, agreed, saying the House of Councillors is the next major hurdle. Of its 248 seats, the LDP and JIP currently hold 101 and 19 seats, respectively -- still short of a majority.

However, Wang said upper house members tend to be less rigidly bound by party positions, and Takaichi could leverage public support to apply pressure.

Regardless of the outcome, "the very act of pushing for constitutional amendment would be significant in itself," he said.

Looking ahead, Dong said relations between Tokyo and Beijing are likely to deteriorate further as the two sides "interact coldly," though he did not foresee the outbreak of a third war.

Kuo urged Japan to follow the U.S. example by enacting a Japanese version of the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act to facilitate exchanges with Taiwanese officials.

For Wang, the supermajority support enjoyed by Takaichi means she will have little need to compromise on national security, economic independence or resistance to Chinese interference in Japan's domestic affairs.

"The question now is not whether Takaichi can push her domestic and foreign policies," he said, "but to what extent she will do so."