INTERVIEW/Japan vote a 'high-stakes gamble' of importance to Taiwan: Experts

By Chao Yen-hsiang, CNA staff reporter

Widely seen as the most Taiwan-friendly Japanese prime minister since Shinzo Abe, Sakae Takaichi dissolved the House of Representatives on Friday three months after taking office, setting the stage for a snap election on Feb. 8 as she attempts to consolidate her leadership.

"I am prepared to put my life on the line as prime minister. I would like the people of Japan to make a direct decision on whether they can entrust the management of the nation to Takaichi," she said in an address Monday.

In interviews with CNA, three experts discussed Takaichi's decision, explaining why Japan's first female prime minister chose to roll the dice, what she hopes to achieve, and how the outcome could affect Taiwan.

A fragile majority

The "why" is pretty straightforward. The ruling coalition, composed of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), now controls only 233 of the lower house's 465 seats, a slim majority that leaves the Takaichi Cabinet vulnerable during legislative negotiations.

All three experts felt the prime minister was seeking to parlay her personal popularity, which has consistently kept her approval above 60 percent, into broader support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), whose backing has hovered below 40 percent.

"It takes 261 seats to secure what is known as a 'stable absolute majority,'" said Lim Chuan-tiong (林泉忠), a project researcher at the University of Tokyo's Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia.

"Winning an overwhelming mandate would give her greater leverage in pushing through her agenda," Lim said, adding that a strong showing would allow her to smoothly advance her fiscal budget by March and meet U.S. President Donald Trump with greater confidence.

Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a professor at National Cheng Kung University's Department of Political Science, agreed, saying the current parliamentary landscape was largely shaped before Takaichi took office and disadvantageous to her.

"What she inherited is a Diet composition formed under her predecessors, Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida, after the purge of the old Abe-era factions," Wang said.

"Leading the LDP to win over half the seats would allow her to silence critics by demonstrating that a clear majority of voters stand behind her."

High-stakes gamble?

Though there was a logical motivation behind Takaichi's move, Lim described it as a "high-stakes gamble" by a determined leader, given that she already had high approval ratings and was under no legal pressure to call an election.

"In the past 20 years, I cannot recall another prime minister calling a snap election with approval ratings as high as hers," Lim said.

Securing around 250 seats would be seen as a decisive victory, but Takaichi could still face internal pressure should the party win fewer than 240, Lim said.

Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), director of National Sun Yat-sen University's Center for Japanese Studies, meanwhile, argued the downside risks were limited.

"Takaichi is expected to campaign intensively for LDP candidates nationwide during the 16-day period until Feb. 8," he said. "She has framed the election as putting the entire party on her shoulders."

Noting the LDP's low support rating, Kuo argued that the results of the snap election could not leave the LDP in any worse position than it is now.

The only remaining uncertainty, he said, was whether such a hectic campaign may prove too burdensome for the 64-year-old Japanese prime minister.

Lim warned, however, that Takaichi's plans could be complicated by a newly formed opposition alliance between the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, the LDP's former coalition partner.

In the most recent election in October, roughly 10,000 to 20,000 typically Komeito supporters voted for LDP candidates, helping the LDP pick up around 50 seats in the lower house, Lim estimated, but those votes could dry up for the LDP with the new alliance in place.

Strategic objectives

In terms of policy, Kuo linked the dissolution of the legislative body to rising regional tensions, including around the Taiwan Strait, and Takaichi's push for a more aggressive Japanese military posture for which she may need a more decisive majority.

He noted that of the record 122.3 trillion yen (US$779.2 billion) budget Takaichi's administration has proposed for fiscal 2026, 9.04 trillion yen would be allocated to defense, pushing Japan's military spending to roughly US$58 billion.

About one-third of that would be directed toward Japan's Southwest Islands (defined as all Japanese islands south of Kyushu), which are considered to be strategically relevant in a Taiwan-related contingency, according to Kuo.

That new emphasis in defense spending would be accompanied by "revising Japan's three key security documents," Wang said.

Adjusting the wording of the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program would allow the Japan Self-Defense Forces to respond more proactively to regional crises, including scenarios involving Taiwan, Wang said.

In her Monday speech, Takaichi said the government would revise the documents "ahead of schedule."

Although none of the three documents explicitly mentions Taiwan, Lim said they have, in substance, focused on a Taiwan contingency since the Abe administration.

"That approach, having Japan shoulder greater responsibility for regional stability, has been consistent with U.S. expectations," Lim said.

Implications for Taiwan

Assuming the Takaichi Cabinet emerges with a firm lower-house majority, Kuo urged Japan to make its officials more accessible to visiting Taiwanese counterparts.

"If Takaichi is willing to openly discuss the possible mobilization of the JSDF at the Diet in the event of a Taiwan contingency," he said, "we could see a significant shift in Japan's policy toward Taiwan after this election."

Lim was more cautious about the impact of ongoing Sino-Japanese tensions on Taiwan.

If tensions remain elevated, high-level visits between Tokyo and Taipei are likely not to be held for the time being, he said.

"When China-Japan relations are stable, it is easier for Taiwan and Japan to develop ties," he said.

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