U.S. and allies must respond to China's gray-zone tactics: Congressman

Taipei, July 8 (CNA) U.S. Democratic Representative Eugene Vindman on Tuesday said the United States and its allies must be prepared to respond to the gray-zone tactics China employs against Taiwan, arguing that deterrence should extend beyond preparing for a military invasion.

In a prerecorded keynote address at the 16th Annual South China Sea Conference hosted by the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Vindman said discussions on deterrence have focused too narrowly on preventing an invasion of Taiwan by China.

Calling the conversation "insufficient," he argued that Washington and its allies must be ready for Beijing engaging in gray-zone activities that "slowly escalate and force the U.S. to respond."

As an example, Vindman said Chinese coast guard vessels could suddenly announce that all ships bound for Taiwan will be subject to customs inspections.

He also pointed to what he described as China's "special maritime law enforcement operation" off Taiwan's eastern coast, launched a few weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing in May, during which commercial vessels were intercepted.

Another possible scenario, he said, would be Beijing requiring all flights to and from Taiwan to submit passenger manifests under its customs regulations.

"This is not an act of war like a blockade, but this is a serious provocation demanding an answer from the United States and its allies," Vindman said.

Such gray-zone actions leave Washington and its partners with limited response options, he said, as military escalation could trigger a broader economic crisis.

Vindman argued that Beijing is "watching closely for signs of bluffing," making it important for the U.S. and its allies to demonstrate that such coercive tactics will not go unanswered.

Citing a Bloomberg Economics study, he said a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would wipe out about US$10 trillion in global GDP, more than twice the economic losses caused by the 2008 global financial crisis.

Taiwan, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., produces more than 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors, Vindman said, adding that cutting-edge chip manufacturing will remain "just 100 miles east of China" for the foreseeable future, despite U.S. efforts to reshore.

If China were able to cut off U.S. access to Taiwanese semiconductors, it would trigger "the greatest economic crash since the Great Depression," he said.

Vindman also said that while the United States has long adhered to its one-China policy and maintained strategic ambiguity, it should make clear that gray-zone coercion against Taiwan is unacceptable, and will be met with "comparable allied response."