ANALYSIS/Taiwan needs 'more refined' approach as Trump returns: Experts

Taipei, Nov. 9 (CNA) With Donald Trump set to return to the White House early next year, experts said Taiwan's approach toward the United States needs to be "more refined" and take greater account of the U.S.' national interests.

At a forum Saturday on how Taiwan should respond to a second Trump presidency, Taiwanese foreign affairs experts said Trump's "America First" policy and his lack of emphasis on shared values require a different strategy than Taiwan has pursued in recent years.

Former Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), a senior fellow at the Institute for National Policy Research, said Trump's "America First" policy will prioritize U.S. national interests to an extreme without considering factors such as shared values and relationships with traditional allies that other world leaders might weigh.

Describing Trump as a "realist national leader," Lo suggested that Taiwan's future dialogue with the U.S. should focus on how the topic of discussion aligns with U.S. national interests, without compromising its own interests.

"It should demonstrate how our (Taiwan's) national interests overlap with or reinforce your (U.S.') national interests," he said, adding that everything must be translated into terms of "interests" so "he (Trump) will be able to understand it."

Echoing Lo's view, National Tsing Hua University associate sociology professor Chen Ming-chi (陳明祺) predicted that Taiwan faces "a bumpy road" in protecting its interests over the next four years when dealing with the U.S.

"You (Taiwan) have to align with his (Trump's) narrative," Chen said, suggesting that when Taiwanese entities invest in the U.S., they should express sentiments such as, "I appreciate the opportunity given to me to invest here and contribute to making America great again."

By maintaining "a very humble stance," Taiwan can avoid many potential challenges when managing its ties with America under Trump's leadership.

'More refined' approaches

Lo predicted that Trump will be "more assertive, more opinionated, leaning further into populism, and even more unpredictable" in his second term, and thus Taiwan's approach should be "more refined."

One area where he believed the Taiwanese government could have performed better is in the timing of its congratulatory message on Trump's win. He said Taiwan was the slowest among Asian countries to send its message, which came at around 7 p.m. Wednesday Taiwan time.

"What were we waiting for? And even if we didn't want to rush to be first, we didn't need to be last, right? Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore had all sent their congratulations," he said.

Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), president of the Prospect Foundation, a political think tank, said that when engaging in dialogue with the Trump administration, it is essential to tune into the correct "frequency."

The Biden administration and Taiwan's government have had many areas of cooperation based on shared values such as diversity and equality, Lai noted, citing the support from both countries for Ukraine during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as an example.

"However, with Trump coming into power, he speaks an entirely different language," Lai said, adding that it is a "reality" that Taiwan has to adjust to a new and different context in its dialogue with America.

The other way round

Lo contended it will be relatively difficult for Taiwan on its own to persuade the U.S. on Taiwan-related issues, especially with Trump once referring to Taiwan as the tip of a pen while China is the desk.

"The more crucial task for Taiwan in the next phase is to collaborate with like-minded or interest-aligned countries to jointly persuade the U.S.," he said.

"Diplomatic efforts toward Japan and Europe are also part of diplomatic efforts toward the U.S.," he said, arguing that the U.S. may be more inclined to listen to Japan and other major European countries.

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In recent years, Japan and European countries have taken numerous actions, such as naval patrols in the region around Taiwan, largely due to U.S. persuasion, Lo noted.

He suggested that during Trump's second term, Taiwan can "reverse the approach" by uniting those countries to "collectively persuade or restrain the U.S." when it comes to issues related to Taiwan's interests.

Lai, on the other hand, emphasized that Taiwan should also not overlook India's potential role, noting that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in office since 2014.

"During his (Trump's) time in office, he favored strong leaders, and Modi had a good relationship with him," Lai said.

Since Modi still holds the position as Trump returns, their "familiarity" will become unique, making Modi a leader with whom Trump would likely be more inclined to engage in discussions related to foreign affairs, Lai added.