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Think tank maintains 2.18% growth forecast for Taiwan's 2019 GDP

2018/12/19 14:06:36

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Taipei, Dec. 19 (CNA) The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), one of the leading think tanks in Taiwan, has left its forecast for Taiwan's 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) growth unchanged at 2.18 percent, expressing caution due to trade tension between the United States and China.

CIER said that economic growth in 2019 will continue to rely on domestic demand, which is predicted to contribute 1.83 percentage points of growth.

The think tank said it expects fixed capital formation to grow 4.79 percent in 2019, up 2.73 percentage points from its forecast for 2018, due to increased public sector investment and the return of Taiwanese businesses with investments overseas.

Private consumption for 2019, meanwhile, is forecast to grow only 2.01 percent, compared with a prediction of 2.11 percent for 2018, due to increased global economic uncertainties and slower wealth and income growth, CIER said.

Wang Jiann-chyuan (王健全), acting president of CIER, said the global economy faces many risks and uncertainties in 2019, and the U.S.-China trade war continues to be a factor that could determine economic outlook.

Other factors that could affect economic growth include the extent of China's economic slowdown, the global interest rate hike trajectory and raw material price fluctuations, he said.

Meanwhile, CIER has slightly raised its forecast for Taiwan's GDP growth for 2018 to 2.62 percent, from a previous forecast of 2.61 percent in October.

(By Pan Tzu-yu and Christie Chen)