Civil defense guide for expats updated as China ramps up pressure

Taipei, March 10 (CNA) An updated version of an English-language civil defense handbook by a Canadian author to better prepare expatriates in Taiwan for natural disasters and a possible military attack by China has recently been released online.

"Resilience Roadmap V2.0," released earlier this month, contains new material aimed at helping people boost their survivability -- for example, how to quickly evade toxic smoke in a fire -- John Groot, who created the guide, told CNA on Monday.

It also provides more information on radio communications and water purification, Groot said.

The most extensive updates, however, are to the section titled "Analysis of Factors Related to War."

In that section, Groot offers a more detailed analysis of potential quarantines or blockades imposed by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan based on information he has gathered and discussions with defense experts.

The guide was released at a time when the city of Tainan is preparing for a civil defense drill on March 27.

The drill, set against the backdrop of Taiwan being on the "verge of conflict with China," will test civilians' abilities to respond to "gray zone activities" -- provocative or aggressive actions that fall just short of armed conflict -- including their ability to find air raid shelters, a Taiwan security official recently told CNA.

Just as the threat of a potential military attack by China was what motivated him to publish "Resilience Roadmap V1.0" in December 2023, Groot said a "major increase" in Chinese military activity around Taiwan and an increasingly aggressive stance taken by the PLA was a main impetus for the update.

The updated analysis includes, for example, how China's Coast Guard now has a role in military exercises China stages near Taiwan, after the PLA staged the Joint Sword 2024-A and Joint Sword 2024-B large-scale military exercises near Taiwan and its outlying islands.

In those exercises, which were carried out in different areas around Taiwan's perimeter, Chinese Coast Guard ships carried out "law enforcement patrols" near Taiwan alongside Chinese Navy exercises in an unprecedented move, the guide said.

"Another goal (of a blockade) might be to force foreign shipping to register with the China Coast Guard (CCG) for permission to transit the Taiwan Strait or to enter or leave Taiwanese ports, thus asserting sovereignty over Taiwan," Groot wrote.

"This would be hard to respond to as Taiwan would not want to fire the first shot in an uneven conflict. Also, the international community might see this as less problematic than a full blockade as it would not cut off commercial traffic through the Taiwan Strait," he wrote.

Given that the PLA has ramped up military activity in Taiwan's vicinity over the past year, Groot also warned of the possibility of the Chinese military quickly turning military exercises into a surprise attack on Taiwan.

This, in fact, is one of the key scenarios that will be simulated in Taiwan's annual Han Kuang wargames this year.

"Large-scale military exercises have become the 'new normal' and the PLA could pivot from exercises to real action in as little as 24 hours. Strategic strikes could be launched with no warning," he wrote.

Underscoring the unpredictability of war, Groot, who has lived in Taiwan for over 20 years, said many "smart" people had incorrectly predicted that Russia would not launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine just days before the assault on Feb. 24, 2022.

"It's unknown, and the threat is very real," he said.