ANALYSIS/Despite hints of softening, DPP sticking to nuclear-free policy

Taipei, Aug. 11 (CNA) When one of Taiwan's last two active nuclear power reactors was shut down on July 27 as its 40-year operating license came to an end, it was another step toward phasing out nuclear power as a source of electricity.

The last active reactor is set to be shut down in May 2025, after which Taiwan will become what the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long pushed for, a "nuclear-free homeland."

Or will it?

The nuclear-free homeland pledge was an article of faith under the government of former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who was in power from May 2016 to May 2024, but hints emerged that there might be a shift in policy under the new administration of President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), who took office on May 20.

Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei (郭智輝), National Science and Technology Council head Wu Cheng-wen (吳誠文), and National Development Council chief Paul Liu (劉鏡清) have all made remarks suggesting the possibility that nuclear energy remained an option.

Pegatron Corp. Chairman Tung Tzu-hsien (童子賢), who was appointed by Lai as deputy convener of a newly established climate change response committee under the Presidential Office, has been very outspoken about his support for nuclear power.

Many believed those positions foreshadowed a policy shift on the issue.

Tsui Shu-hsin (崔愫欣), secretary-general of the Green Citizens' Action Alliance, said it did seem that the current DPP administration was wavering on its nuclear-free policy under pressure from the business sector.

"But the premier and the vice premier, also many DPP lawmakers, are still holding fast to the nuclear-free position," Tsui said.

Given that the DPP's nuclear-free stance is based, according to Tsui, on the lack of a repository for nuclear waste on Taiwan, she said she thought the DPP was not likely to budge on the issue.

Sensitive issue of waste

Beyond mentioning the legal barriers to extending the service lives of nuclear power plants, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) and DPP lawmakers have repeatedly said that a "social consensus" needed to be reached before considering nuclear power.

The "consensus" is likely a reference to the handling of nuclear waste, because finding a place to put it has resulted in a political tug-of-war for decades.

Low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) was sent to the outlying Orchid Island until 1996, but that was stopped by local protests, and now LLRW is stored in each plant.

High-level waste (HLW) from the first and second nuclear power plants, both in New Taipei, are set to be placed in dry casks for 40 years before moving to a "final repository" that has yet to be identified.

In fact, Nuclear Safety Commission Chairperson Chen Tung-yang (陳東陽) said in the Legislature in early July that no country other than Finland, "not even the U.S., has completed such a place," referring to a final repository.

Defining types of 'nuclear power'

Lu Tsai-ying (呂采穎), a researcher studying net-zero technology and social transition at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET), a national think tank established under the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) in 2023, does not see the DPP changing its position, either.

"As much as we believe that new nuclear technologies are likely to have a positive effect on scientific research, medicine or industrial applications at some point in the future, [we don't think] the DPP government has made major shift in its energy policy or its stance on [quitting] "traditional" nuclear plants," she told CNA.

There has been some suggestion, however, that the DPP might be more accepting of new nuclear technologies.

At the first meeting of the president's climate change committe held on Aug. 8, Lai was cited as saying that there had to be a "societal consensus" on how to ensure nuclear safety and deal with existing nuclear waste for the government to be open to future atomic energy options.

Cho said in a recent interview that there is room for discussion "if the new [nuclear] energy developed in the future has no nuclear waste problem."

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and fourth-generation reactors are sometimes called new nuclear technologies as some advocates say they offer improved safety, costs, and lead times, but according to Lu, they have the same downside of generating radioactive waste.

Citing an article from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) published in 2022, Lu said SMRs will produce even more reactive waste than existing traditional reactors.

If what Cho was referring to was the nuclear-fusion type of nuclear power, which is waste-free, "its application is still multiple decades away," Tsui said.

Supply, climate-change challenges

Nuclear power, which accounted for 14-18 percent of Taiwan's energy mix from 2005 to 2015, according to Energy Administration statistics, will account for less than 3 percent after one of the two reactors in the Third Nuclear Power Plant was shut down on July 27.

That reactor only generated around 2.5-3 percent of electricity.

Yet as its shutdown was being planned, state-owned utility Taiwan Power Co. extended the service life of a 600 MW coal-fired generator privately run by the Formosa Plastics Group that was supposed to close on May 31, 2024.

That led some to believe that the extension was granted to compensate for the nuclear reactor's shutdown. Taipower said the arrangement would give it "more room for maneuver."

The government is sensitive to power issues because Taiwan has suffered repeated power outages in recent years, though they have been largely caused by power grid or transmission substation issues, rather than the lack of power generated.

That is why for Lu, the most urgent task is to strengthen power transmission and the power grid in general and decentralize power sources, "which can help the country counter extreme weather."

Taiwan's two decommissioned nuclear power plants and one remaining active plant "are located on the northern and southern tips of the island of Taiwan," she said.

They "relied on only three extra-high voltage (EHV) transmission power lines to distribute power," she said, pointing to the grid's potential vulnerability if those power plants were brought back into service.

As for future electricity needs, the 2023 National Electricity Supply and Demand Report published in July 2024 estimated that Taiwan's electricity demand will rise by about 12-13 percent by 2030 compared to 2024.

But the administration has said that will be covered by the construction of new renewable energy sources and natural gas-fired generators.

Still, concerns exist that the DPP is overly optimistic about how quickly renewable energy can be deployed in Taiwan, given that renewables current account for only about 10 percent of the country's electricity mix, against an original target of 20 percent by 2025 that has now been moved back to 2026.

With the renewable energy roll-out behind schedule and no nuclear power for base power, that will mean that more fossil fuels, the key culprits of climate change, are powering Taiwan, which could present a challenge controlling emissions in the future.

Energy autonomy

Another factor driving the government, Lu believed, is its interest in energy autonomy and having a decentralized electricity grid. Too concentrated a power grid could be highly risky in emergency scenarios, such as war.

Also, "[with Taiwan] having no comprehensive industrial supply chain for nuclear power like Japan and South Korea do, we do not think nuclear has more potential to enhance Taiwan's autonomy," Lu said.

Taiwan still has to import nuclear fuel from the United States, which is even less autonomy-enhancing than natural gas, which can be imported from various sources, she argued.