ANALYSIS/Lai's stopovers signal Taiwan-U.S. efforts to counter China influence: Expert

Taipei, Dec. 1 (CNA) President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) stopovers in Hawaii and Guam during his first overseas trip to Taiwan's Pacific diplomatic allies are indicative of a Taiwan-U.S. alliance to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative, a Taipei-based security expert said Sunday.

Lai arrived in Hawaii Saturday for a two-day stopover on his trip to Taiwan's diplomatic allies Palau, Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, and is scheduled to make a stopover in Guam on his return trip.

Lai's trip is set to "link" the first, the second and third island chains, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at Taiwan's government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), told CNA.

Taiwan is located on the first island chain, while Guam and Palau are along the second island chain, and Hawaii is on the third island chain, Su explained.

The three island chains are strategically important for curbing China's expansionism and, in particular, the Belt and Road Initiative, Su said.

The first island chain is the "first line of defense" against Chinese expansionism and a critical maritime route for fuel, with Taiwan located at the center of this chain, Su said.

As China is building deep-water harbors in the Solomon Islands and Peru and a space tracking station in Kiribati, fortifying the second island chain aids efforts to defend the first island chain and is in the interest of the U.S. and its allies, Su said.

Meanwhile, open-source data shows that the George Washington Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is deployed in Yokosuka, Japan, while the Abraham Lincoln CSG is in Port Klang, Malaysia, and the USS Carl Vinson supercarrier is in the East Pacific.

Asked if such deployments were made to deter China from overreacting to Lai's passing through the U.S. state and territory, Chieh Chung (揭仲), a research fellow at the Association of Strategic Foresight, said they were aimed to deter China but unlikely related to Lai's itinerary.

Academics have said that there is a high possibility Lai's transit stops in the U.S. could trigger Beijing, causing it to hold large-scale military exercises near Taiwan, in part to "set the ground rules" for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding Taiwan.

However, this is unlikely as such a tactic could irritate Trump and have the opposite effect, Chieh said.

Rather, the move is likely intended to warn China not to engage in any unnecessary or provocative behavior in the Taiwan Strait in the run-up to Jan. 20, when Trump is set to be inaugurated, Chieh added.

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The first island chain refers to the archipelago consisting of the Aleutian Islands, the Japanese archipelago, South Korea, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines and the Greater Sunda Islands.

The second island chain refers to the Izu Islands, the Bonin Islands, the Mariana Islands, the Caroline Islands, Guam, Palau, and Halmahera Island.

The third island chain refers to Alaska, Hawaii, U.S.-governed Pacific Islands, Australia and New Zealand.

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