ANALYSIS/Scholars divided on U.S. military support for Taiwan under Trump presidency

Taipei, Nov. 7 (CNA) With Donald Trump re-elected President of the United States, Taiwanese scholars expressed mixed opinions on whether his incoming administration would commit U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

One day after the confirmation of the Republican candidate's victory, foreign affairs, cross-strait, and defense experts on Thursday gathered at a seminar held in Taipei by National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Institute of International Relations, to discuss the potential impact on Taiwan, with Trump set to return to the White House early next year.

Will U.S. help?

While many describe Trump as highly unpredictable, his logic is "actually very predictable," as the 78-year-old "does not want the U.S. to be taken advantage of," whether in terms of trade or regional conflicts, said Alexander Huang (黃介正), an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.

Trump has often proudly stated that he did not deploy U.S. troops to fight overseas during his previous presidential term, Huang said, adding that the current Russia-Ukraine war, the conflicts involving Israel, Hamas and Iran, as well as the four large-scale Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, did not occur during his term from 2017 to 2021.

"From another perspective, those four years might have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic... or by Trump's distinctive approach as U.S. president in interacting with other major world powers, which contributed to the absence of large-scale military conflicts," Huang noted.

However, he said that if a military conflict were to occur in the Taiwan Strait, "the U.S. must deploy military forces, but the positioning and distance of those forces relative to Taiwan would be uncertain," and those U.S. forces would certainly not fight alongside Taiwan's military due to the lack of formal diplomatic ties, alliances, joint exercises, and language barrier.

"The deployment of U.S. forces would be to protect American interests, not to fight on Taiwan's behalf," Huang said, predicting that the U.S. would act in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act to "strongly support Taiwan's self-defense."

Unhelpful seeds planted

Holding an opposing view, Yen Chen-shen (嚴震生), an adjunct research fellow at NCCU's Institute of International Relations, said that during Trump's election campaign, he already "planted many seeds indicating that he does not intend to assist Taiwan."

Some of the "stigmatizing or mocking remarks" about Taiwan cited by Yen included Trump's mention of the challenges posed in defending the island nation due to its distance from the U.S., as well as criticism of Taiwan for stealing the U.S. chip industry, having an insufficient defense budget, and not paying a protection fee.

Those reasons, Yen said, could be used to justify not assisting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Preparing for 2027

Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, highlighted that a key moment Trump must address during his upcoming term would be the year of 2027, which marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army and the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

In 2027, Trump would potentially have to handle Chinese military threats toward Taiwan and engage with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), "as they tussle during this pivotal period," he said.

Lin added that Trump has made different statements regarding Taiwan, such as suggesting that U.S. forces would bomb Beijing if China attacked Taiwan, while noting that he could not disclose too much for fear that Xi would learn his strategy.

"He (Trump) also mentioned that Xi knows he is 'crazy,' so the issue (of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan) would probably not even arise under his presidency," Lin said.

How Beijing sees Trump's return

Asked about Beijing's perspective on the result of the election, Kou Chien-wen (寇健文), a distinguished professor at NCCU's Department of Political Science, said the basic structure of U.S.-China confrontation would not change no matter who -- Trump or Kamala Harris -- is elected, "but the approach may be adjusted."

"On issues of sovereignty and security, I believe Beijing's fundamental stance will not involve any concessions," Kou said, adding that the severity of any conflict arising from sovereignty and security issues could potentially be managed if there is communication between the U.S. and China.

During his campaign, Trump said he would impose tariffs of 60 percent or higher on Chinese goods if he returned to the White House.

From Beijing's perspective, "there may be some room for flexibility in trade, but the extent of concessions will depend on whether these trade concessions can be exchanged for stability in U.S.-China relations," he added.