Anti-China rhetoric needs nuance, scholars say after recall defeat

Taipei, July 27 (CNA) The failure of Taiwan's legislative recall campaign on Saturday shows that broad, one-size-fits-all anti-China messaging is losing traction with voters, scholars said Sunday, calling for a more nuanced approach to defending Taiwan's democracy.

Twenty-four opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu Mayor Kao Hung-an (高虹安) were up for recalls, and they all survived. A second wave of seven recall votes, along with a referendum on restarting a nuclear power plant, is set for Aug. 23.

The clean sweep by KMT lawmakers, who were elected in January 2024, was a stinging blow to President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who had hoped to gain control of the Legislature by ousting some of the opposition legislators.

At a forum held to review the result, Tunghai University politics professor Albert Chiu (邱師儀) said the recall became a contest between livelihood issues and anti-China messaging, and voters chose the former.

He argued that future messaging must move beyond sweeping labels and focus on specific issues like the 1992 Consensus, a vaguely worded framework the KMT used to conduct dialogue with Beijing when in power from 2008 to 2016 that said there is only "one China," with each side free to interpret what "China" means.

Chiu cautioned against framing all KMT lawmakers as pro-China, saying that approach risked alienating moderate and younger voters who did not experience past KMT authoritarianism or cross-Taiwan Strait hostility firsthand.

"Anti-Communist China narratives need to be more targeted and patient," he said.

Chiu argued that the failed recall did not represent a public shift toward China, but rather a rejection of oversimplified political rhetoric.

He felt it was a good moment for Lai to adopt a softer tone and pursue cross-party dialogue, following the inclusive style of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).

Unlike Lai, however, who has to work with a Legislature in which the opposition is in the majority, Tsai operated in a much friendlier environment, with the DPP holding healthy legislative majorities during her two four-year terms.

Prospect Foundation President Lai I-chung (賴怡忠) echoed that the results should not be interpreted as pro-China sentiment.

He noted that while recent elections in countries such as the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan -- along with Taiwan's recall vote -- may suggest a pushback from pro-China groups, broader factors such as U.S. trade policy and global geopolitics are also at play.

Taoyuan City Councilor Yu Pei-chen (于北辰) added that a simple argument resonated with pan-blue voters: "If the recall passes, we'll face three more months of chaos."

Many voters chose stability over disruption, he said.