ANALYSIS/Japanese politics likely face instability, policy adjustments: Experts

Taipei, Oct. 28 (CNA) Japanese politics face some degree of instability and potential policy changes, Taiwanese experts said on Monday, the day the ruling coalition lost its majority.

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Kuo Kuo-wen (郭國文) called on Taiwan's government to make friends with all Japanese major political parties in the wake of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) reduced electoral support.

The experts made the call during a Taipei seminar after the LDP lost its majority for the first time in 15 years, as Sunday's general election dealt a major blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid public anger over a series of political scandals.

The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito secured just 215 of the lower house's 465 seats, short of the 233 needed to command a majority, according to Japan's national broadcaster NHK.

Ishiba described the result as delivering a "severe judgement" to his party. The LDP, a conservative political party, has ruled Japan almost continuously since the party's founding in 1955.

Yang Chun-chih (楊鈞池), a political science professor at the National University of Kaohsiung, said at Monday's seminar that Japan's political situation now faces uncertainty and instability.

"The election result is having a huge impact on Japanese politics," Yang said. Without a majority, the ruling coalition under Ishiba faces a hard time in the lawmaking body, making it harder to push through major policies.

According to Japan's Constitution, a special session in the National Diet, Japan's legislature, must be held within 30 days of the election to select a prime minister. But whether Ishiba will be chosen for the leadership role is uncertain, according to Yang.

Moreover, Ishiba would have to come up with new policies in the months to come if selected to continue as prime minister, Yang suggested.

Kuo, an expert on Japan within Taiwan's ruling DPP, said Ishiba and the LDP's fall from power are due to the party's fund-raising scandal and Ishiba's handling of the aftermath of the scandal.

The 67-year-old politician's decision not to endorse lawmakers linked to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe -- a popular figure in conservative Japanese politics -- backfired, he said.

Ishiba, president of the LDP, only appointed 13 relatively-inexperienced figures to his cabinet and excluded all lawmakers implicated in the party's fund-raising scandal.

Many supporters of former Prime Minister Abe were not satisfied with Ishiba's decision to distance himself from Abe faction members within the LDP.

With the LDP losing its majority in Japan's parliament, Ishiba will likely face more criticism from within his own party from those who are not satisfied with his approach to the Abe faction, the DPP lawmaker said.

Ishiba has also been criticized for being inconsistent on monetary policy. Initially, he respected the Bank of Japan's judgment regarding an early interest rate hike, but in an about-face after taking office, he expressed caution in regard to the measure, according to Kuo.

Despite this latest election setback, Kuo said he believes Ishiba would do his best to stay on as prime minister given the former defense minister only succeeded in his fifth bid to become Japan's top leader in late September.

He also said it is worth noticing that veteran lawmaker Akira Amari from the LDP's legislative caucus on semiconductors lost his seat in Sunday's election.

Amari was behind Japan's decision to invite Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) to open a wafer fab -- Japan's most advanced microchip facility -- in Kumamoto, according to Kuo.

Whether Amari's failure to be reelected and the LDP's overall loss of seats will affect Japan's ruling coalition's policy of promoting Taiwan-Japan semiconductor cooperation remains to be seen, he added.

Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), deputy head of Taipei-based think tank the Institute for National Policy Research, also predicted that Taiwan-Japan relations are not expected to see major breakthrough or improvement in years to come given the minority government situation in Tokyo.