Taiwan 'very important' to Japan for 3 strategic reasons: Japanese scholar

Washington, Jan. 30 (CNA) Taiwan is "very important" to Japan for three strategic reasons, a Japanese scholar said Friday while discussing scenarios under which the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) could be mobilized.

The issue has drawn attention since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi commented in November 2025 on what may constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan in the event of a Chinese naval blockade, amid rising tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

Speaking at a cybersecurity conference in Washington on Friday, Ryo Kiridori, a research fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, said Japan views Taiwan as strategically vital due to its geographic proximity, its role in key sea lines of communication and its economic importance.

Any contingency involving Taiwan would heighten Japan's sense of insecurity, he said, noting that Taiwan lies only about 111 kilometers from Yonaguni Island, Japan's westernmost point.

Kiridori also showed images of maritime traffic highlighting heavy shipping flows around Taiwan, including in the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel, which he described as critical choke points for the Japanese economy.

In addition, Kiridori noted that Japan is increasingly dependent on semiconductors imported from Taiwan, which he said accounts for roughly two-thirds of global semiconductor output.

According to Kiridori, Japan's interpretation of collective self-defense applies to situations in which Japan is under armed attack, or when an armed attack against a country with close ties to Japan poses a clear threat to Japan's survival.

What Prime Minister Takaichi said is if there is a naval blockade and if there is the use of force, Japan could consider the situation a threat to its survival, he said. "This is exactly in line with Japanese law and is essentially a restatement of existing legal principles."

Kiridori rejected the view that Japan has moved toward strategic clarity on Taiwan, despite some interpreting Takaichi's remarks on simulated scenarios as the country's most explicit public stance to date.

"I would say there are still ambiguities and uncertainties in the decision-making process," he said, adding that any response would be determined on a case-by-case basis following comprehensive assessments.

What is certain, Kiridori said, is that Japan seeks to avoid confrontation. "We don't want confrontation between the United States and China, and we don't want a destabilized Taiwan Strait," he said.