'Moderate' chance of 'high impact' cross-strait war in 2025: Report

Washington, Jan. 7 (CNA) There is a "moderate" likelihood of a cross-strait war in 2025 that could have a "high" impact on U.S. interests, a survey by the Council on Foreign Relations published on Tuesday found for the fifth consecutive year.

"Intensified military and economic pressure by China toward Taiwan" is listed among other "top conflicts to watch in 2025" as a "Tier I (High Priority)" potential war, said the report by the U.S. think tank's Center for Preventative Action (CPA).

China's hostile actions towards Taiwan could "precipitate a severe cross-strait crisis involving the United States and other countries in the region," the CPA report said, warning that such a scenario could "suddenly ignite."

The report, titled "Preventive Priorities Survey 2025," is based on 680 survey responses from foreign policy experts collected in November 2024 and "evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests."

A potential armed conflict between China and Taiwan has been listed as a "moderate likelihood" and "high impact" Tier I contingency every year since 2020 in the CPA's annually-published report.

Other moderate-likelihood and high-impact conflict scenarios listed alongside a possible cross-strait war in the 2025 report are cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure, "aggressive Chinese actions" in the South China Sea, and "domestic terrorism and political violence" in the U.S.

The highest-risk potential conflict scenarios -- those listed as high-likelihood and high-impact -- in the 2025 survey include "a continuation of the Israel-Hamas war" and "increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank."

They also include "major Russian military gains in Ukraine," "an escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel" and heightened "tensions with Mexico."

A humanitarian crisis in Haiti, "accelerated state collapse" in Lebanon, and "increased Russian military provocations and influence operations in eastern Europe" are further listed as high-likelihood and moderate-impact potential conflict scenarios.

The Council on Foreign Relations, a non-partisan American think tank based in Washington D.C., "generates policy-relevant ideas and analysis, convenes experts and policymakers, and promotes informed public discussion," the report said.