DEFENSE / China could invade Taiwan with 'little advance warning': U.S. Commission

Taipei/Washington, Nov. 19 (CNA) China has enhanced its capacity to "blockade or launch an invasion of Taiwan with little advance warning," the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) said Tuesday (U.S. Time) in its 2025 Annual Report to Congress.

"We have entered a crucial phase in Beijing's longstanding efforts to impose sovereignty over Taiwan," the report's chapter on Taiwan said, adding that China is "rapidly advancing toward its goal of being prepared to take Taiwan by force."

The USCC cited U.S. and Taiwan military officials who said that the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) could implement a blockade within "a matter of hours."

The report said Beijing has continued to escalate a "multifaceted pressure campaign targeting Taiwan through military threats, economic coercion, and malign influence activities."

According to the USCC, Beijing has focused much of its information warfare on exacerbating domestic political divisions in Taiwan and driving a wedge between Taiwan and the United States by fomenting uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies on Ukraine, tariffs and semiconductors.

The Commission said PLA incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone rose from 20 in 2019 to 3,075 in 2024, while cases of espionage for China and the number of countries endorsing Beijing's "One China principle" have also surged.

The report said Taiwan has responded by making progress in enhancing "military deterrence and social resilience" through larger and more realistic military exercises, efforts to accelerate asymmetric defense capabilities, and new measures to counter Chinese malign influence.

In an opening statement at the report's release, USCC Vice Chair Randall Schriver said "Beijing has talked a big game about being a force for global stability," but that "the reality is that Beijing has only continued to engage in destabilizing activities that threaten the very international order it proclaims to uphold."

"We should be clear-eyed about the fact that Beijing is rapidly advancing its capabilities for a potential conflict," Schriver said, noting that in the past year alone the PLA has fielded "self-propelled landing barges, the world's largest amphibious assault ship, and hypersonic anti-ship missiles that could target U.S. warships -- just to name a few."

He warned that "Beijing's growing capabilities are particularly concerning in light of its increasingly aggressive gray zone activities in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea," adding that such actions "raise the risk of a miscalculation that could trigger a larger kinetic conflict."

The former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs also said the report highlighted that China has formed an "axis of autocracies" with Russia, Iran and North Korea.

During the hearing, Schriver responded to the suggestion that Taiwan could potentially take part in the U.S.-led Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC) by saying he personally preferred to see more U.S.-Taiwan training focused on Taiwan's specific military challenges, possibly expanding to trilateral or multilateral exercises with partners such as Japan and the Philippines.

The USCC recommended that Congress direct the U.S. Department of State to work with Taiwan on a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) case to provide non-weapon support services that would strengthen U.S. deployments and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.