Most Taiwanese see PRC's territorial aims as 'serious threat': Survey

Taipei, Oct. 9 (CNA) A majority of Taiwanese view the People's Republic of China's (PRC) "territorial ambitions" as a "serious threat," on a par with a stagnant economy and extreme weather, a survey commissioned by a Taiwanese government think tank has found.

One of the questions asked by the survey, commissioned by the Ministry of National Defense think tank Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), gave its 1,214 respondents three choices and asked them how serious a threat each one was.

"Extreme weather" topped the list, chosen by 66.7 percent of respondents as a "serious threat," followed by China's "territorial ambitions" at 63.9 percent, and "stagnant economic development" at 63.3 percent.

In terms of the PRC's stated intention of making Taiwan part of its territory, another 19.4 percent of respondents saw it as an "important but not serious threat," while 9.5 percent felt it was an "inconsequential threat."

On the likelihood of China militarily invading Taiwan in the next five years, about 62 percent of people believed that to be an unlikely scenario, while about 24 percent said it was likely.

Asked if they would fight for Taiwan if China militarily attacked Taiwan, 41.6 percent of respondents said they were "very willing" to do so, 26.2 percent were "somewhat motivated," 11.9 percent said they were "less motivated," and 11.7 percent said they were "very reluctant."

Respondents were split on the ability of Taiwan's military to protect the country, with 47.9 percent saying they were "not confident" or "not so confident" about it, and 47.5 percent saying they were "confident" or "very confident."

Notably, the belief that Taiwan had sufficient defense capabilities was more prevalent among supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (72.7 percent).

Some 74.3 percent of people identifying as supporters of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and 66.7 percent of people who said they supported the Taiwan People's Party did not share that optimism.

INDSR assistant research fellow Lee Kuan-cheng (李冠成) said this showed that Taiwan should continue pushing for national defense reforms, including boosting the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces.

He said it should also continue to provide whole-of-society national defense education, engage the public in affairs relating to national defense, and increase transparency on what the military does, which could include releasing more details on military drills.

Confidence in the U.S.

The survey also gauged the public's confidence in the United States' commitment to help defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

It found that 52.6 percent of respondents people believed the U.S. would send its forces to Taiwan's assistance, while only 39.6 percent believed the U.S. would deploy its Navy to run a Chinese blockade around Taiwan.

More than 70 percent of people believed the U.S. would help Taiwan in the event of a Chinese military invasion but would not be directly involved in the conflict.

Nearly three-quarters (74.8 percent) of respondents saw U.S. support coming in the form of airdropped food and medical supplies, 73.4 percent felt the U.S. would impose economic and diplomatic sanctions against China, and 76.3 percent said the U.S. would supply Taiwan with weapons and other defense articles.

INDSR Chief Executive Officer Lee Wen-chung (李文忠) said the public's lack of faith in the U.S. directly intervening in a war between Taiwan and China could be attributed to Washington's long-standing strategic ambiguity policy.

Although U.S. President Joe Biden has said on five occasions that the U.S. would defend or conditionally defend Taiwan in the event of an attack on Taiwan, the U.S. Department of State issued statements dialing down Biden's comments almost every time, Lee said.

The survey was conducted by the National Chengchi University Election Study Center from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16 by landline and mobile phone. It gathered 1,214 valid samples among people aged 18 or older and had a confidence value of 95 percent and a margin of error of 2.81 percent.