Electricity demand to grow by 2.5% annually with AI rise: Energy head

Taipei, July 15 (CNA) Demand for electricity is estimated to grow by an average of 2.5 percent annually through 2028, and artificial intelligence (AI) technology requirements will likely rise eight-fold by the end of 2028, the Energy Administration said Monday.

The administration under the Ministry of Economic Affairs published the 2023 National Electricity Supply and Demand Report on Monday, estimating that Taiwan's demand for electricity is expected to rise about 12 to 13 percent in 2030 compared to that of 2024.

Considering anticipated economic growth, AI development and the related semiconductor and electric vehicle booms, the administration estimates that average annual growth in demand from 2024 to 2028 will be 2.5 percent, with the power needs of AI technologies rising eight-fold from 240 megawatts (MW) in 2023 to 2.24 gigawatts (GW) in 2028.

The average annual growth of the 10 years between 2024 and 2033 is estimated to be 2.8 percent, considering that AI applications would steadily expand, Energy Administration Director-General Yu Cheng-wei (游振偉) told a press conference.

"To match the demand, on the supply side we will have to complete the construction of new [renewable energy and natural gas-fired] generators, the upgrading of the grid including the electrical substations, and the addition of energy storage systems to support renewable energy generation," Yu said, referring to various ongoing projects.

Yu said the country will continue implementing the energy transition goal of generating more electricity from renewable energy sources.

"The installed solar power capacity has reached 12.42 GW and the installed wind power capacity will reach 1.76 GW by the end of 2023, meeting the demand of daytime peak loads, so the Taiwan Power Co. has turned to concentrate more on the power distribution during nighttime peak hours," he explained.

The official added that with the ongoing construction of solar and wind power, renewable energy is expected to account for 15 percent of the energy mix by 2025.

Renewable energy work had been "delayed by the pandemic and the restricted resources due to the global rise for wind power construction," Yu added.

The Democratic Progressive Party government led by former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had called for renewables to make up 20 percent of the country's energy mix by 2025.

"We however estimate that the 20-percent goal can be reached by November 2026," Yu said.

As for role of nuclear energy in the government's energy planning, Yu said that "We respect the Legislative Yuan's decision [on whether to amend the law and extend the nuclear power plants' operating license], but our stance is that nuclear energy should be used only when its safety is assured, nuclear waste problem solved, and a public consensus reached."

In 2023, 83.09 percent of Taiwan's electricity generation came from thermal (39.54 percent natural gas, 42.21 percent coal, 1.34 percent oil), 6.31 percent from nuclear, and 9.52 percent from renewables, according to the administration's 2023 Energy Statistics Handbook published in early July.

Nuclear energy production in Taiwan is set to decrease, with the country's only remaining active Third Nuclear Power Plant in Pingtung County scheduled to stop operating completely in May 2025.

(By Alison Hsiao) enditem/JT