MND submits PLA report, details possible scenarios for Taiwan campaign

Taipei, Aug. 29 (CNA) Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) on Friday submitted its 2025 report on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the Legislative Yuan, outlining possible scenarios China may adopt in launching a campaign against Taiwan.

The report said China has stepped up military pressure in recent years by deploying aircraft and warships for patrols around Taiwan, staging drone incursions and holding targeted exercises to demonstrate its ability to strike the island.

It added that China also used "gray zone" tactics to blur battlefield boundaries and shorten response times, while sending carrier strike groups into the Western Pacific to showcase its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities.

China's posture is designed to maintain deterrence and create a wartime-ready atmosphere, the MND said.

On the possible timing of an attack, the ministry noted that under Article 8 of China's Anti-Secession Law, Beijing could use "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan independence forces cause separation, a major incident threatens a split, or peaceful unification is deemed impossible.

By comparison, the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report outlined six potential triggers: a formal independence declaration, other pro-independence actions, unrest in Taiwan, nuclear weapons acquisition, stalled reunification talks, or foreign military intervention.

In its report, the MND outlined four possible scenarios in which the PLA could escalate from training to actual combat.

These include holding targeted drills near Taiwan and its outlying islands, even in restricted waters within 24 nautical miles; carrying out regular patrols, long-range deployments and joint air-sea drills between the first and second island chains to simulate strikes on Taiwan's military and infrastructure; declaring no-sail zones for live-fire or blockade exercises; and deploying coast guard and militia vessels to board, seize or obstruct ships near Taiwan's ports.

The report also highlighted China's goal of modernizing its armed forces by 2035, including developing a sixth-generation fighter jet, while leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative to deepen ties with Indo-Pacific countries, counter the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy and push Taiwan's international isolation.

Along with the PLA report, the ministry submitted its 2026 defense budget and five-year defense plan to the Legislature.