Tougher U.S. anti-China trade barriers could hurt Taiwan: Ex-NTU head

Taipei, Nov. 4 (CNA) The United States under a new president will likely introduce "tougher and bolder" trade barriers against China that could cause "collateral damage" in Taiwan, former National Taiwan University (NTU) President Kuan Chung-ming (管中閔) warned Monday.

Speaking at a forum in Taipei on regional security trends, Kuan said the U.S. is a very divided country, but if there is one thing the Republicans and the Democrats can agree upon, it is "antagonism" toward China.

Among the sources of that antagonism are manufacturing being outsourced to China causing job losses, Chinese spy activities in the U.S., unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, labor and human rights violations, and intellectual property infringements, Kuan said.

Trade practices that have cost Americans their jobs are particularly sensitive, and no matter who wins the election, the U.S. will continue adopting a tough stance toward China, particularly on trade, that could involve "tougher and bolder trade barriers," said Kuan, now a chair professor at NTU College of Management.

He did not specify how he thought Democratic Party presidential nominee Kamala Harris would apply tariffs if she were to win, but said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump could hit China with heavy tariffs.

That, Kuan warned, would cause Taiwan to suffer "collateral damage" because of the close economic ties between Taiwan and China.

Trump has proposed a blanket 20 percent tariff on all goods, which would affect Taiwan too, and Taiwan needs a "grand strategy" to avoid being caught in the crossfire between the U.S. and China, Kuan argued.

In addition, although Taiwan is now a major exporter of high-end semiconductors, it should not think of itself as "irreplaceable" and should come up with sub-strategies for export and industry diversification, Kuan said.

In terms of style, if Trump were to win, his "American tough guy" personality will likely mean an administration that adopts a heavy-handed approach in an attempt to "knock out" China with one powerful punch.

In contrast, if Democratic nominee Kamala Harris wins, her administration would likely switch up its strategy against China by throwing uppercuts, left hooks and right hooks, Kuan said.

This difference in governing style would likely also manifest itself in U.S.-Taiwan relations when trying to get Taiwan to "pay protection fees," Kuan said, in indirect reference to a remark by Trump.

Whichever party wins, it will try to persuade Taiwan to pay high "protection fees" by purchasing more weapons and military equipment, with the only difference being that a Harris administration would be more "polite" and a Trump administration more forward when demanding payments, Kuan said.