DEFENSE/1-year conscription could erode Taiwan military investment: Group

Taipei, June 25 (CNA) Taiwan's reinstatement of one-year conscription could significantly hike personnel costs, negatively impacting other military-related investments, a security research group has warned.

The Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation on Tuesday published the 2023-2024 Republic of China National Defense Review into the allocation of national defense resources.

To bolster Taiwan's "backup" fighting force and civil defense, the country's Legislature in 2023 passed a motion forwarded by the Cabinet to reinstate the one-year conscription for men born after Dec. 31, 2004. The measure took force on Jan. 1 this year. Previously, the country adopted a 4-month "military training" as conscription.

Citing the target set by the Ministry of National Defense (MND), the review pointed out that the ministry expects to recruit 53,600 conscripts by 2029.

That number would raise the current cap on the military staff of 215,000 to at least 250,000 leading to an increase of NT$16.8 billion (US$518 million) in personnel costs, according to Alex Liu (劉立倫), a professor emeritus at Chung Yuan University, who helped compile the review.

The resultant rise in expenditure is expected to swell even more when factoring in the MND's pledge to assign 800 rounds to each conscript for shooting training and train them to use "next-generation weapons" such as Kestrel anti-armor rockets, Stinger missiles, and drones, Liu said.

Crucially, the 12-month conscription period would ultimately contradict Taiwan's efforts to downsize its military, which have seen the personnel cap lowered from 452,000 in 1996 to 215,000 in 2014 over three phases, the review warned.

As such, the reinstated conscription would encroach on the funding necessary for other military investments if the national defense budget is not increased accordingly, the review said.

Elevated personnel costs would also run counter to the norm of advanced countries, which rely heavily on advanced weapons designed for modern warfare, Liu said.

For example, personnel costs of the U.S. armed forces account for only about 20 percent of its defense budget while military-related investments and operating costs make up the remaining 80 percent, Liu said.

In 2023, Taiwan allocated 65.49 percent of its defense spending on military-related investments and operating costs.

Taiwan's military staffing could return to pre-downsize levels, and the country risks overturning such efforts if it does not decrease the number of service personnel recruited under a concurrently implemented voluntary program, the review said.

Former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), head of the school's Center for Peace and Security, called on the MND to revise its current cap on total personnel and review and adjust its recruitment target for conscription accordingly.